World Cup 2026 — win probabilities

Top 10 by chance to lift the trophy · Monte Carlo simulation, refreshed every 6 hours

# Team Win % Advance %
1 NorwayNOR 3.4% 72.7%
2 MexicoMEX 3.2% 74.5%
3 BrazilBRA 3.1% 73.4%
4 MoroccoMAR 3.0% 71.9%
5 NetherlandsNED 2.9% 72.5%
6 SwitzerlandSUI 2.8% 71.2%
7 EgyptEGY 2.8% 70.7%
8 ArgentinaARG 2.8% 70.4%
9 ColombiaCOL 2.7% 71.6%
10 JapanJPN 2.6% 71.3%
Betsprinter AI model → v0.30-wc2026.phase1 · updated Sep 26, 18:00 UTC