World Cup 2026 — win probabilities

Top 10 by chance to lift the trophy · Monte Carlo simulation, refreshed every 6 hours

# Team Win % Advance %
1 MexicoMEX 3.4% 74.7%
2 SwitzerlandSUI 3.1% 72.2%
3 ArgentinaARG 3.0% 71.3%
4 BrazilBRA 3.0% 72.2%
5 NetherlandsNED 3.0% 72.5%
6 FranceFRA 2.9% 71.4%
7 NorwayNOR 2.9% 71.7%
8 EgyptEGY 2.9% 70.9%
9 Côte d'IvoireCIV 2.8% 70.8%
10 MoroccoMAR 2.8% 71.8%
Betsprinter AI model → v0.30-wc2026.phase1 · updated Jun 27, 18:00 UTC