World Cup 2026 — win probabilities

Top 10 by chance to lift the trophy · Monte Carlo simulation, refreshed every 6 hours

# Team Win % Advance %
1 MexicoMEX 3.5% 73.7%
2 BrazilBRA 3.3% 72.4%
3 NorwayNOR 3.2% 72.7%
4 ColombiaCOL 3.1% 72.4%
5 JapanJPN 2.9% 69.9%
6 NetherlandsNED 2.9% 73.1%
7 SwitzerlandSUI 2.8% 71.2%
8 Côte d'IvoireCIV 2.8% 69.9%
9 MoroccoMAR 2.8% 71.7%
10 FranceFRA 2.8% 71.8%
Betsprinter AI model → v0.30-wc2026.phase1 · updated Aug 12, 12:00 UTC