# Elfsborg vs Mjällby > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Thu 21 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1000) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Elfsborg 1–1 Mjällby ## Model verdict - **Elfsborg win:** 11% - **Draw:** 31% - **Mjällby win:** 58% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans sharply to the visitors despite home setting ## The stage This Allsvenskan fixture kicks off on Thu 21 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC, a midweek slot that compresses recovery windows for both sides[^fact-1]. The supplied facts do not list a venue beyond the home/away designation, so analysis leans on form and ratings rather than specific pitch factors[^fact-11]. ## Form & momentum The model gives a clear probability split: Home 11% / Draw 31% / Away 58%, a sizeable lean to the travellers with a 27 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That aligns with the Elo picture: Elfsborg carry an Elo shortfall of 128 points even after home advantage was applied[^fact-3]. On recent results Elfsborg arrive in mixed shape — a sequence of D W D L W across their last ten matches, translating to 1.50 points per game, 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Mjällby have the hotter trajectory: L W W W D in the sample shown as 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses across the last ten, producing 1.90 points per game with 1.80 goals scored and a stingy 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raw rates underline why the model favours the away side; the visitors score more and concede less in the recent window, while Elo also favours Mjällby[^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Form players to watch are clearly identified in the supplied facts. For Elfsborg, F. Ihler has two goals and one assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.12, marking him as the most productive recent outlet noted in the data[^fact-9]. For Mjällby, Jacob Bergström arrives in even better scoring touch with three goals in his last five and an average rating of 7.31[^fact-10]. Those individual trends mirror the team-level attack and defensive numbers: Elfsborg’s modest goals-per-game returns contrast with Mjällby’s higher scoring rate and lower concession rate[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-10]. The supplied facts do not include any explicit injury or suspension lists, so heavy absences cannot be quantified from the available dataset; the model and market comparisons are therefore driven by form, Elo and the named in-form players above[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three market edges were identified when the model was compared to available listings[^fact-11]. The clearest edge is on the Away Match Winner: the model assigns 65% to the visitors versus a market price implying 39.5% (odds 2.53 at CloudBet), producing a 25.6 percentage-point edge and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. That is consistent with both the model’s 58% away-win probability overall and the Elo deficit on the home side[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. The model also flags Under 2.5 goals as a value selection: model probability 65% against a market price of 1.77 at Unibet (an 8.2 percentage-point edge, high confidence)[^fact-7]. This pairs with the defensive numbers available — Mjällby conceding only 0.90 per match in the recent window — and Elfsborg’s modest 1.20 goals per game, which together make a low-scoring match credible on the supplied stats[^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-7]. A third, lower-confidence edge is on Both Teams to Score — No: the model gives No a 57% chance while the market sits at even money (2.00) on Betfair, creating a 7.3 percentage-point edge (mid confidence)[^fact-8]. The underlying ingredients are the same: Mjällby’s stronger defensive record and Elfsborg’s relatively limited scoring rate in the recent sample[^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-8]. All three edges come from the set of markets analysed against the model probabilities; the dataset notes three markets were compared in total[^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the away side — a 58% probability for an Mjällby win supported by a 128-point Elo advantage after home adjustments and superior recent scoring and defensive rates for the visitors[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. The clearest market inefficiency in the supplied facts is the Away Match Winner quote at CloudBet, with complementary signals favouring a low-scoring game and a reasonable chance that both teams do not score, based on the stated probabilities and recent form metrics[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 21 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 11% / Draw 31% / Away 58% (source: model; confidence high, 27 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ELF vs Mjällby — Elo differential -128 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ELF recent form** — DWDLW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Mjällby recent form** — LWWWD last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 65% vs market price 2.53 at CloudBet, edge 25.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 65% vs market price 1.77 at Unibet, edge 8.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 57% vs market price 2.00 at Betfair, edge 7.3 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **ELF in-form player** — F. Ihler — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.12. [^fact-10]: **Mjällby in-form player** — Jacob Bergström — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.31. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .