# Anderlecht vs Sint-Truiden > Pro League · Kickoff Thu 21 May 2026, 18:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1001) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Anderlecht 3–1 Sint-Truiden ## Model verdict - **Anderlecht win:** 37% - **Draw:** 28% - **Sint-Truiden win:** 35% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Thin margins as model splits probabilities between sides ## The stage This Tie is scheduled for Thu 21 May 2026, 18:30 UTC in the Pro League[^fact-1]. The fixture arrives without an explicit venue listed in the supplied facts, so all model and situational edges are expressed without a stadium-based caveat[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The predictive model returns a remarkably tight three-way picture: Home 37% / Draw 28% / Away 35% — a low-confidence split where the winner over the runner-up is only 2 percentage points[^fact-2]. That statistical squeak aligns with the small Elo edge applied for home advantage: ADL holds a +26-point differential versus SIT once home advantage is factored in[^fact-3]. Recent results underline the ambivalence. Anderlecht have collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats in their last 10 outings (DDLLL pattern summarised as 2-2-6 W-D-L), averaging 0.80 points per game and scoring 1.40 while conceding 2.10 goals per match[^fact-4]. Sint-Truiden have a cleaner recent line: 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats in their last 10 (DLWWW pattern summarised as 3-2-5 W-D-L), with 1.10 points per game and a defensive record of 1.20 conceded and 1.10 scored per match[^fact-5]. The raw form numbers give Sint-Truiden a modest momentum advantage in both points per game and defensive returns despite the small Elo tilt towards Anderlecht[^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Anderlecht’s most noticeable in-form contributor in the available data is Mihajlo Cvetkovic: 2 goals and 0 assists across his last 4 appearances, with an average match rating of 6.71[^fact-7]. By contrast Sint-Truiden’s attacking spark in the supplied facts is Ryotaro Ito, who has produced 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances and carries a significantly higher average rating of 7.56[^fact-8]. In availability terms, Anderlecht will be missing Moussa Diarra with an injury note; Diarra featured for 722 minutes in the recent run referenced in the facts[^fact-9]. Sint-Truiden will be without Abdoulaye Sissako through injury, a player who logged 864 minutes in the recent stretch provided[^fact-10]. Those absences remove players who had been accumulating substantial minutes, but the supplied facts do not specify positional replacements or tactical consequences, so conclusions stop at the raw minutes lost[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Across the markets compared against the model, three market lines were analysed against the model outputs[^fact-11]. The clearest priced discrepancy highlighted in the facts is an away match-winner value pick: the model assigns Sint-Truiden a 37% probability while the market price on 1xbet is 3.11, producing an edge of 5.2 percentage points and a mid confidence tag from the model team[^fact-6]. That single market was flagged explicitly in the supplied data as the top value call; the model’s 37% away probability itself was part of the tripartite forecast cited earlier[^fact-2][^fact-6]. No further market edges or alternative lines are provided in the structured facts, so the discussion concentrates on this single highlighted discrepancy between model and market pricing[^fact-11][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans narrowly toward the away side while acknowledging a nearly even three-way outcome — Home 37% / Draw 28% / Away 35% — and flags the away match-winner as the solitary, mid-confidence market value from three markets analysed[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-11]. The small Elo advantage for Anderlecht (+26 with home applied) and Anderlecht’s worse recent points and goals balance make this a fixture of thin margins where a single in-form performer or an enforced absence could tilt the result[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 21 May 2026, 18:30 UTC — Pro League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 37% / Draw 28% / Away 35% (source: model; confidence low, 2 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ADL vs SIT — Elo differential +26 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ADL recent form** — DDLLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SIT recent form** — DLWWW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 37% vs market price 3.11 at 1xbet, edge 5.2 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **ADL in-form player** — Mihajlo Cvetkovic — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.71. [^fact-8]: **SIT in-form player** — Ryotaro Ito — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.56. [^fact-9]: **ADL key absence** — Moussa Diarra out (injury), 722 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **SIT key absence** — Abdoulaye Sissako out (injury), 864 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .