# Südtirol vs Bari 1908 > Serie B · Kickoff Fri 22 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1004) **Status:** Live ## Model verdict - **Südtirol win:** 68% - **Draw:** 23% - **Bari 1908 win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 1.72 | Pinnacle | 67% | +8.4 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home side clear favourites with strong model and Elo edge ## The stage This Friday fixture kicks off at 18:00 UTC in the closing phase of the Serie B calendar and carries the usual end-of-season weight for teams fighting for position and form[^fact-1]. The match pits the home side against Bari 1908 in a single-game setting where small margins matter; the model gives the home side a large probability advantage at 68% compared with a 23% chance of a draw and an 8% chance of an away win[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results point in opposite directions. The hosts have only one draw and five defeats across their last ten fixtures, producing a record displayed as DDLLL in the last ten (0-5-5), and they average 0.50 points per game with 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors show a better raw return over the same sample: DWWLL in their last ten (4-1-5), 1.30 points per game with 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Despite those league-form differentials, the Elo comparison after applying home advantage still favours the hosts by 89 points, which is a meaningful edge in the model’s internal strength metric[^fact-3]. That Elo cushion helps explain why the model’s probability spread favours the home side so heavily and why confidence in the prediction is described as high, with a 45 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel There are two in-form player profiles worth noting for their recent outputs. For the home side, Emanuele Pecorino has one goal and no assists in his last five appearances, carrying an average match rating of 7.05 over that span[^fact-7]. On the other flank, Bari’s Kevin Piscopo has scored twice in his last five appearances with no assists and an average rating of 6.96 in those same matches[^fact-8]. Availability issues will shape selection. The home team will be without Filipe Bordon due to injury; Bordon averaged 74 minutes in his recent run before the absence[^fact-9]. Bari will miss Giuseppe Sibilli through suspension, a disciplinary absence that removes a player from selection for this fixture[^fact-10]. Those losses matter for rotation and bench depth even if the full tactical consequences are not specified in the facts provided. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights one clear market discrepancy. It projects Under 2.5 goals with a 67% probability, while the market price at Pinnacle is 1.72; that puts an edge of 8.4 percentage points in favour of the model view, and the report tags this as a high-confidence advantage[^fact-6]. This model-market gap aligns with the low scoring averages: the hosts at 0.70 goals per match and Bari at 1.30 goals per match over their last ten outings[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Across three markets analysed against the model, this Under 2.5 selection is the top value identified, reflecting the clearest statistical mismatch between probabilistic output and market pricing[^fact-11][^fact-6]. The model’s strong home probability (68%) and Elo differential (+89) combine with low recent goals-per-game figures to underpin a lower-scoring expectation for the fixture[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side, giving them a 68% chance while pricing the draw and away outcomes far behind at 23% and 8% respectively—an opinion supported by an 89-point Elo edge after home advantage is applied[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Converging indicators — low recent goalscoring rates, the model’s explicit 67% probability for Under 2.5, and the market edge on that line — point to a low-scoring affair with the hosts favoured to claim the result[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 22 May 2026, 18:00 UTC — Serie B [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 68% / Draw 23% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 45 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SUD vs BAR — Elo differential +89 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SUD recent form** — DDLLL last 10: 0-5-5 (W-D-L), 0.50 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BAR recent form** — DWWLL last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 67% vs market price 1.72 at Pinnacle, edge 8.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **SUD in-form player** — Emanuele Pecorino — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-8]: **BAR in-form player** — Kevin Piscopo — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.96. [^fact-9]: **SUD key absence** — Filipe Bordon out (injury), 74 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **BAR key absence** — Giuseppe Sibilli out (suspension). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .