# Górnik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1010) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Górnik Zabrze win:** 58% - **Draw:** 17% - **Radomiak Radom win:** 25% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | btts | No | 2.10 | Betfair | 64% | +16.4 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and defensive control set the narrative ## The stage This is an Ekstraklasa fixture scheduled for Sat 23 May 2026 at 15:30 UTC, a late‑season kick that can still shift table dynamics in either direction depending on results[^fact-1]. The model gives a clear leaning to the home side — a 58% chance for the hosts, with draw and away probabilities 17% and 25% respectively — a verdict delivered with high internal confidence (33 percentage points to the runner‑up scenario)[^fact-2]. That probabilistic tilt is reinforced by an Elo margin that already factors in home advantage: a +161 Elo differential in favour of the hosts[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent runs underline why the model favours the home team. The hosts have compiled a WDLWW sequence in their last 10, translating to 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat, delivering 1.90 points per game while averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per match[^fact-4]. By contrast, the visitors have a LDWWW last‑10 line recorded as 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, producing 1.20 points per game with 1.00 goals for and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The combination of superior points per game and a cleaner defence gives the hosts both statistical momentum and the look of the side more likely to control tempo and results, which aligns with the Elo and probabilistic model edge already noted[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel The hosts have a clear in‑form contributor in Rafal Janicki, who has 2 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.28 across that sample[^fact-7]. That level of output from a single player can matter in tight Ekstraklasa encounters where goals are at a premium given the hosts’ low concession rate[^fact-4][^fact-7]. For the visitors, Abdoul Tapsoba provides the attacking spark: 3 goals, 0 assists in his last four games with an average rating of 7.16[^fact-8]. His recent scoring form is the clearest route for an upset. The visitors will also be without Roberto Alves due to suspension; Alves had contributed 86 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-9]. Losing a player who clocked minutes in that run is a non‑trivial disruption to continuity for the away side[^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-10]. The clearest standalone edge is on a low‑scoring outcome: the model estimates No in Both Teams to Score at 64%, versus a Betfair market price implying a lower probability at 2.10 (market), which produces an edge of 16.4 percentage points in the model’s view — an outcome the model rates with high confidence[^fact-6]. The hosts’ defensive numbers (0.50 conceded per match) and the visitors’ modest scoring and conceding record (1.00 scored, 1.20 conceded) support that projection[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The broader market landscape — three markets compared — shows the model tilting sharply to home advantage and a low‑goal profile, consistent with the Elo spread and the teams’ underlying defensive details[^fact-10][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The analytical lean is straightforward: home advantage is substantial here, reflected in a 58% model probability and a +161 Elo differential, and the underlying per‑match numbers favour a low‑scoring game underpinned by a tight home defence and an away side missing a key contributor[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-9]. The single clearest market inefficiency identified is the No in Both Teams to Score call, where the model’s 64% sits well above the Betfair price implied probability[^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 58% / Draw 17% / Away 25% (source: model; confidence high, 33 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Górnik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom — Elo differential +161 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Górnik Zabrze recent form** — WDLWW last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 0.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Radomiak Radom recent form** — LDWWW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 64% vs market price 2.10 at Betfair, edge 16.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Górnik Zabrze in-form player** — Rafal Janicki — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.28. [^fact-8]: **Radomiak Radom in-form player** — Abdoul Tapsoba — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.16. [^fact-9]: **Radomiak Radom key absence** — Roberto Alves out (suspension), 86 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .