# Górnik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1010) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Górnik Zabrze 6–2 Radomiak Radom ## Model verdict - **Górnik Zabrze win:** 65% - **Draw:** 18% - **Radomiak Radom win:** 17% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home-side superiority and low-scoring market edges dominate preview ## The stage Saturday’s kick-off is scheduled for 15:30 UTC in the closing days of the Ekstraklasa season, a fixture in which the home side holds the statistical advantage according to the model[^fact-1][^fact-2]. The contest carries the usual league implications of mid/late-season matches — points, goal difference and momentum — and the model places clear probabilistic weight on a home result[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Górnik Zabrze arrive with the healthier recent record: WDLWW over the last 10 matches, equivalent to a 5-4-1 (W-D-L) split and 1.90 points per game, while averaging 1.10 goals scored and conceding 0.50 per match in that span[^fact-4]. Radomiak Radom’s last 10 read LDWWW, a 3-3-4 breakdown with 1.20 points per game, 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo differential, with home advantage applied, is strongly tilted toward Górnik by +161 points, a material edge on the rating scale[^fact-3]. Those three signals — form, underlying numbers and Elo — converge in favour of the hosts and explain why the model’s verdict gives the home outcome the largest share at 58% (draw 17%, away 25%)[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Górnik’s short-term form has specific contributors: Rafal Janicki has two goals and an average match rating of 7.28 across his last five appearances, marking him as an in-form performer to watch within the hosts’ ranks[^fact-8]. Radomiak counterbalances with Abdoul Tapsoba, who has three goals and a 7.16 average rating in his last four outings, providing the visitors with a clear offensive threat[^fact-9]. Radomiak will be without Roberto Alves through suspension; Alves averaged 86 minutes in the recent run, making his absence a clear availability issue for the away side[^fact-10]. The numerical shape of the two teams — Górnik conceding just 0.50 per match recently versus Radomiak conceding 1.20 — underlines why the hosts look more stable defensively in the sample window[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies two market-level opportunities where probability and price diverge sharply from the public books. First, the model favours the Under 2.5 goals line with 72% probability, while Pinnacle’s market price sits at 2.30; the resulting edge is quantified at +29.0 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model assigns a 64% probability to “No” on Both Teams to Score, versus Betfair’s market price 2.10, yielding a 16.4 percentage-point edge and likewise assessed with high confidence[^fact-7]. These edges reflect the same underlying signals cited above: Górnik’s low recent concession rate (0.50) and Radomiak’s modest scoring balance (1.00 scored, 1.20 conceded) that together make low-scoring outcomes and single-team clean sheets more likely in the model’s view[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Three markets were compared explicitly against the model to produce these conclusions, confirming that the analysis is constrained to a narrow set of market lines rather than a broad sweep of odds[^fact-11]. The model edges are substantial on the two low-scoring lines and are consistent with the Elo tilt and form profiles already outlined[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the home win at 58%, supported by a +161 Elo advantage and cleaner defensive numbers for Górnik in the recent sample; the same projection favours low-scoring outcomes — Under 2.5 and No on Both Teams to Score — where market prices lag model probabilities by notable margins[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 58% / Draw 17% / Away 25% (source: model; confidence high, 33 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Górnik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom — Elo differential +161 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Górnik Zabrze recent form** — WDLWW last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 0.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Radomiak Radom recent form** — LDWWW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 72% vs market price 2.30 at Pinnacle, edge 29.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 64% vs market price 2.10 at Betfair, edge 16.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Górnik Zabrze in-form player** — Rafal Janicki — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.28. [^fact-9]: **Radomiak Radom in-form player** — Abdoul Tapsoba — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.16. [^fact-10]: **Radomiak Radom key absence** — Roberto Alves out (suspension), 86 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .