# Jagiellonia Białystok vs Zagłębie Lubin > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1011) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Jagiellonia Białystok win:** 70% - **Draw:** 18% - **Zagłębie Lubin win:** 12% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.20 | 10Bet | 71% | +25.6 pp | | btts | No | 2.10 | 888Sport | 63% | +15.4 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home odds and low-scoring lean: model backs the hosts strongly ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC in an Ekstraklasa fixture[^fact-1]. This match lands late in the season calendar and carries the usual competitive weight of a domestic league fixture; the model gives the home side a clear edge in outcome probability[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum On form lines, the hosts have been the steadier outfit in recent outings, posting DWWLW over their last 10 matches, interpreted as 4-3-3 (W-D-L) and producing 1.50 points per game with 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive with a patchier return of LWDLL over their last 10, shown as 3-1-6 (W-D-L), delivering 1.00 point per game with 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s underlying strength view is reinforced by a sizable Elo differential: the home side holds an Elo edge of +220 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. That gap helps explain the model’s match-level verdict of Home 70% / Draw 18% / Away 12%, a distribution described as high-confidence with a 52 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. Put simply, the statistical drivers — recent form metrics and Elo — both tilt decisively toward the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Two individual players stand out from the recent sample. Afimico Pululu has been the main attacking catalyst for the hosts with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.34 in that span[^fact-8]. For the visitors, Levente Szabó is the notable contributor with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five and an average rating of 6.99[^fact-9]. Availability questions also matter. The hosts will be without Kamil Jozwiak due to injury; his recent involvement was limited to 27 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. The visitors also face an injury absence in Dominik Hladun[^fact-11]. Those absences are the standout personnel constraints listed in the model input and will shape selection and match dynamics[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags two clear market edges against available prices in three markets analysed[^fact-12]. First, the model places strong probability on Under 2.5 goals at 71% while the market price being compared is 2.20 at 10Bet, yielding a model-market edge of 25.6 percentage points and a high confidence assessment[^fact-6]. Second, the model rates No on Both Teams to Score at 63% versus a market price of 2.10 at 888Sport, producing an edge of 15.4 percentage points and also flagged with high confidence[^fact-7]. Those two signals are consistent with the match-level diagnostics: the hosts out-rate the visitors in attack and defence metrics across the recent window, the visitors have a lower goals-scored rate, and the Elo gap suggests the visitors are likely to be kept quieter than usual[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. The model’s high confidence in the Under 2.5 outcome aligns with lower expected aggregate scoring; the Both Teams to Score No pick mirrors the expectation that one side — most likely the visitors under pressure — will fail to score[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the hosts (Home 70% / Draw 18% / Away 12%) on account of a large +220 Elo edge and steadier recent form from the home side, and it finds market value on low-scoring outcomes — notably Under 2.5 and No on Both Teams to Score — across the three markets analysed[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 70% / Draw 18% / Away 12% (source: model; confidence high, 52 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Jagiellonia Białystok vs Zagłębie Lubin — Elo differential +220 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Jagiellonia Białystok recent form** — DWWLW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Zagłębie Lubin recent form** — LWDLL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 71% vs market price 2.20 at 10Bet, edge 25.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 63% vs market price 2.10 at 888Sport, edge 15.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Jagiellonia Białystok in-form player** — Afimico Pululu — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.34. [^fact-9]: **Zagłębie Lubin in-form player** — Levente Szabó — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-10]: **Jagiellonia Białystok key absence** — Kamil Jozwiak out (injury), 27 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Zagłębie Lubin key absence** — Dominik Hladun out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .