# Jagiellonia Białystok vs Zagłębie Lubin > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1011) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Jagiellonia Białystok 1–0 Zagłębie Lubin ## Model verdict - **Jagiellonia Białystok win:** 69% - **Draw:** 18% - **Zagłębie Lubin win:** 12% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home side heavy favourites as attack/defence fine margins decide match ## The stage Kickoff is Sat 23 May 2026 at 15:30 UTC in the Ekstraklasa[^fact-1]. The calendar position and table ramifications are not supplied; focus falls instead on the immediate matchup dynamics and how model and Elo lines quantify the gap[^fact-1][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum The model lands decisively on the home side with a 69% probability for a Jagiellonia win, a 18% chance of a draw and 12% for an away win — the model notes a high-confidence margin, a 51 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That confidence aligns with an Elo differential of +220 points in favour of the home side after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Recent results underline why the model and Elo tilt toward the hosts. Jagiellonia’s last ten read DWWLW, registered as a 4-3-3 W-D-L split, with 1.50 points per game and an average of 1.60 goals scored against 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Zagłębie arrive in poorer sequence: LWDLL across their last ten, a 3-1-6 W-D-L split, averaging 1.00 point per game with 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those per-match lines frame this as a fixture where the home side carry both superior offensive output and a modest defensive edge[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Jagiellonia’s attacking buzz centres on Afimico Pululu, who has three goals and two assists across his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.34 in that span[^fact-8]. Pululu’s recent productivity is a clear reason Jagiellonia’s goals-per-game figure sits at 1.60[^fact-4][^fact-8]. The hosts do, however, face a key absence: Kamil Jozwiak is out with injury and has featured 27 minutes in the recent run, a loss to squad depth and rotation options for his side[^fact-10]. Zagłębie’s brightest offensive contributor of late is Levente Szabó, with one goal and one assist in his last five and an average rating of 6.99[^fact-9]. That modest attacking return helps explain Zagłębie’s lower goals-per-game number (0.80) this period[^fact-5][^fact-9]. Their most significant availability issue is the absence of Dominik Hladun through injury[^fact-11]. The provided facts do not specify positions for the absentees; assessment must therefore be limited to the impact inferred from their mention alone[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies two clear market edges across the markets analysed[^fact-12]. First, an Under 2.5 goals market shows a 71% model probability versus a market price of 2.20 at 10Bet, producing an edge of 25.6 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. That aligns with low goals-per-game outputs for Zagłębie (0.80) and a modest concession rate for Jagiellonia (1.20), shaping a match profile that leans toward few goals[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. Second, the model favours ‘No’ on Both Teams to Score at 63% against a market price of 2.10 at 888Sport, an edge of 15.4 percentage points and also rated with high confidence[^fact-7]. The combination of Zagłębie’s subdued scoring (0.80 goals per match) and Jagiellonia’s slightly better defensive record supports that line in the model’s view[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7]. Those two value calls are the top picks from the three markets analysed against model projections[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is strongly home: a 69% probability for a Jagiellonia win reinforced by a +220 Elo edge and superior recent attacking and points-per-game numbers[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. The clearest market opportunities are defensive‑leaning lines — Under 2.5 and No on Both Teams to Score — where the model registers substantial edges versus available prices[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 69% / Draw 18% / Away 12% (source: model; confidence high, 51 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Jagiellonia Białystok vs Zagłębie Lubin — Elo differential +220 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Jagiellonia Białystok recent form** — DWWLW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Zagłębie Lubin recent form** — LWDLL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 71% vs market price 2.20 at 10Bet, edge 25.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 63% vs market price 2.10 at 888Sport, edge 15.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Jagiellonia Białystok in-form player** — Afimico Pululu — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.34. [^fact-9]: **Zagłębie Lubin in-form player** — Levente Szabó — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-10]: **Jagiellonia Białystok key absence** — Kamil Jozwiak out (injury), 27 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Zagłębie Lubin key absence** — Dominik Hladun out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .