# Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1013) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Legia Warszawa 4–0 Motor Lublin ## Model verdict - **Legia Warszawa win:** 63% - **Draw:** 19% - **Motor Lublin win:** 17% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home side clear favourites as margins tilt heavily in Warsaw ## The stage This is an Ekstraklasa fixture kicking off Sat 23 May 2026 at 15:30 UTC, a late‑season meeting that looks weighted on paper before a ball is kicked[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Legia come into the game on a hot run: their last 10 matches read WWWLW and that recent stretch gives them 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss with 2.10 points per game; they are scoring 1.10 goals and conceding 0.80 per match in that window[^fact-4]. Motor Lublin have a far patchier sequence — DWLLL across the last 10 with an underlying 3‑4‑3 record, 1.30 points per game, 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match in that same sample[^fact-5]. The model assigns a clear home edge: a 64% chance for the hosts versus 19% for a draw and 17% for the visitors, a probability split that comes with a stated high confidence and a 45 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up[^fact-2]. That aligns with a substantial Elo differential: Legia carry an Elo advantage of +185 points with home advantage applied[^fact-3]. Put simply, recent form and Elo both tilt decisively toward the home side[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Legia’s in‑form contributor flagged by the metrics is Kamil Piatkowski, who has produced 0 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances while averaging a 7.07 match rating[^fact-8]. The most notable absence for Legia is Pawel Wszolek (injury), who has logged 485 minutes in the recent run before his layoff[^fact-10]. Motor’s form engine is Bartosz Wolski — 2 goals and 4 assists in his last five outings with an average rating of 7.49[^fact-9]. Their biggest recent loss is Ivo Rodrigues suspended for this match; Rodrigues had accumulated 847 minutes in the recent run prior to suspension[^fact-11]. These personnel shifts matter because the model’s edges attach to player availability and recent contributions[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights two clear market edges after comparing three markets against its probabilities[^fact-12]. First, the Under 2.5 goals selection is rated by the model at 61% probability versus a market price on Betfair of 2.38, producing an edge of 18.8 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the Home Match Winner is assessed at 74% by the model versus a market price of 1.57 at Dafabet, an edge of 10.1 percentage points and likewise marked with high confidence[^fact-7]. Both edges are consistent with the broader statistical picture: a home side that concedes only 0.80 goals per match in its recent run and a visitor side that has gone through a suspension to a key player who had been heavily involved minutes‑wise[^fact-4][^fact-11]. The sum of probabilities — a strong home win likelihood and a lean toward fewer goals — explains why the model finds value on both the straight result and the goals market[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly to the home side: a 64% match‑winner probability and a large Elo cushion underpin that stance, while the most profitable secondary read is an Under 2.5 goals projection at 61% against the market price[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 64% / Draw 19% / Away 17% (source: model; confidence high, 45 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Legia Warszawa vs Motor Lublin — Elo differential +185 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Legia Warszawa recent form** — WWWLW last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Motor Lublin recent form** — DWLLL last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 61% vs market price 2.38 at Betfair, edge 18.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 74% vs market price 1.57 at Dafabet, edge 10.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Legia Warszawa in-form player** — Kamil Piatkowski — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.07. [^fact-9]: **Motor Lublin in-form player** — Bartosz Wolski — 2 goals, 4 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.49. [^fact-10]: **Legia Warszawa key absence** — Pawel Wszolek out (injury), 485 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Motor Lublin key absence** — Ivo Rodrigues out (suspension), 847 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .