# Widzew Lodz vs Piast Gliwice > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1015) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Widzew Lodz win:** 53% - **Draw:** 34% - **Piast Gliwice win:** 13% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 1.80 | 10Bet | 76% | +20.1 pp | | btts | No | 2.00 | Betfair | 66% | +16.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and low goals: model leans to a tight Widzew win ## The stage Widzew Łódź host Piast Gliwice in an Ekstraklasa fixture with kickoff set for Sat 23 May 2026 at 15:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The model treats this as a home match for Widzew, with home advantage already applied in its ratings[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences paint contrasting pictures. Widzew have a LWLWL pattern across their last 10 matches, recorded as 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, delivering 1.50 points per game while averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Piast arrive with LDDWD over their last 10, a 3-3-4 W-D-L split, at 1.20 points per game and averages of 1.50 goals for and 1.60 against[^fact-5]. The underlying power metrics favour the hosts: an Elo edge of +123 points sits with Widzew after home advantage was applied[^fact-3]. The model’s match probabilities mirror that gap — it gives the home outcome 53% probability, the draw 34% and the away win just 13%[^fact-2]. The model’s confidence in that home lean is notable: a 19 percentage-point gap separates the favourite from the runner-up outcome in the prediction set[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Widzew’s in-form attacker Sebastian Bergier has had a productive recent run, contributing 2 goals and 2 assists across his last five appearances and carrying an average rating of 7.40[^fact-8]. Piast’s most in-form option is Patryk Dziczek, who has 2 goals in his last five matches and an average rating of 7.35[^fact-9]. Absences shift the match-up slightly. Widzew will be without Emil Kornvig due to suspension; he logged 883 minutes in the recent run before the suspension[^fact-10]. Piast are missing Frantisek Plach through injury; Plach recorded 90 minutes in the recent run prior to that absence[^fact-11]. The loss of Kornvig is a heavier hours-based absence in recent minutes played, while Plach’s absence removes a regular 90-minute presence[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies clear market inefficiencies on the low-scoring side. Under 2.5 goals carries a 76% model probability while the market price at 10Bet is 1.80, producing an edge the model quantifies as 20.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. The model also flags “No” on Both Teams to Score at 66% versus a market price of 2.00 on Betfair, an edge of 16.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Those two outcomes are consistent with the match-level indicators: Widzew’s defensive concession rate of 0.70 goals per match and Piast’s 1.60 concede figure suggest a game more likely to be contained than open[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Markets analysed in the comparison numbered three distinct markets against the model[^fact-12]. The strongest single statistical tilt in the model is toward a low-goal game, a view supported both by probabilities and the goal-exchange profiles of the two sides[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is toward the home side given a substantive Elo advantage and a 53% match probability, but the clearest edges are in the lower-scoring markets: Under 2.5 goals (model 76% vs market 1.80) and Both Teams to Score — No (model 66% vs market 2.00)[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Sebastian Bergier and Patryk Dziczek remain the most obvious threats on either flank of the scoreline, while absences for Emil Kornvig and Frantisek Plach change available minutes for their squads[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 53% / Draw 34% / Away 13% (source: model; confidence high, 19 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Widzew Lodz vs Piast Gliwice — Elo differential +123 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Widzew Lodz recent form** — LWLWL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Piast Gliwice recent form** — LDDWD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 76% vs market price 1.80 at 10Bet, edge 20.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 66% vs market price 2.00 at Betfair, edge 16.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Widzew Lodz in-form player** — Sebastian Bergier — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.40. [^fact-9]: **Piast Gliwice in-form player** — Patryk Dziczek — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.35. [^fact-10]: **Widzew Lodz key absence** — Emil Kornvig out (suspension), 883 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Piast Gliwice key absence** — Frantisek Plach out (injury), 90 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .