# Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia > Ekstraklasa · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1016) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Raków Częstochowa 3–0 Arka Gdynia ## Model verdict - **Raków Częstochowa win:** 77% - **Draw:** 15% - **Arka Gdynia win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Raków overwhelming favourite as form and Elo tilt heavily ## The stage Kickoff is set for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 15:30 UTC in an Ekstraklasa fixture.[^fact-1] This match arrives with a straightforward competitive frame: Raków Częstochowa enter as clear favourites in the league contest according to the model, which assigns the home side a 77% chance, a draw 15% and an away victory 8%.[^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Recent performance data underline the model’s stance. Raków Częstochowa’s last ten matches register as WLWWW with a 5-3-2 record (W-D-L), producing 1.80 points per game and averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match.[^fact-4] Arka Gdynia’s sequence reads LDDLL with a 2-4-4 record (W-D-L), 1.00 points per game and an average of 1.20 goals scored against 1.70 conceded per match.[^fact-5] The long-range quality gap is stark on Elo terms: the model applies a home advantage and still shows Raków with a +306 point edge over Arka.[^fact-3] That magnitude of Elo differential typically maps to persistent dominance rather than a one-off fluctuation, which aligns with Raków’s superior recent goal returns and points-per-game figure.[^fact-4][^fact-3] ## Personnel Raków’s attacking rhythm has a clear spark in Jean Carlos Silva, who has 1 goal and 3 assists in his last four appearances and carries an average rating of 7.40 across that span.[^fact-7] Silva’s recent creative returns help explain Raków’s 1.70 goals-per-game average in the sample.[^fact-4][^fact-7] Arka’s most notable in-form contributor in the sample is Vladislavs Gutkovskis, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 6.80.[^fact-8] That output sits below Raków’s lead creator numbers and is reflected in Arka’s lower scoring rate.[^fact-5][^fact-8] Availability disruptors matter here. Raków will be without Fran Tudor through injury after Tudor logged 404 minutes in the recent run.[^fact-9] Arka face the suspension of Kike Hermoso, who contributed 540 minutes during the same period and will be absent.[^fact-10] Those absences remove experienced minutes from both squads and will force tactical adjustments; the numerical context — minutes lost — is non-trivial for match preparation.[^fact-9][^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value Markets compared against the model total three.[^fact-11] The clearest market discrepancy flagged is the Match Winner market: the model prices a home win at 76% while Dafabet’s market price implies the home at 1.37, producing a model-market edge of roughly 3.3 percentage points (with the report labelling that edge as low confidence).[^fact-6] That single-market note is consistent with the model’s wider outputs: a 77% model probability for the home side and a +306 Elo differential both point toward a heavily skewed expectation in Raków’s favour.[^fact-2][^fact-3] Aside from the match-winner comparison, the market review processed three markets in total against the model.[^fact-11] The model’s high-confidence gap to the runner-up outcome — noted as 62 percentage points separating the lead probability from its nearest rival — underpins a decisive lean by the numbers.[^fact-2] ## Verdict The quantitative picture is straightforward: Raków Częstochowa enter with superior recent form, a notable +306 Elo edge after home adjustment, and attacking momentum centred on Jean Carlos Silva, while Arka Gdynia arrive with weaker form and a suspended defensive starter.[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-7][^fact-5][^fact-10] The model assigns Raków a 77% chance to win (draw 15%, away 8%), and the only flagged market divergence of consequence is a small edge on the home Match Winner line versus Dafabet’s 1.37 price — an observation the model treats with low confidence.[^fact-2][^fact-6] Expect a game shaped by Raków’s control of chances and Arka needing to compensate for the absence of Kike Hermoso; the numbers point to a clear lean rather than an even contest.[^fact-7][^fact-10][^fact-3] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 15:30 UTC — Ekstraklasa [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 77% / Draw 15% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 62 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Raków Częstochowa vs Arka Gdynia — Elo differential +306 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Raków Częstochowa recent form** — WLWWW last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Arka Gdynia recent form** — LDDLL last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 76% vs market price 1.37 at Dafabet, edge 3.3 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **Raków Częstochowa in-form player** — Jean Carlos Silva — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.40. [^fact-8]: **Arka Gdynia in-form player** — Vladislavs Gutkovskis — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.80. [^fact-9]: **Raków Częstochowa key absence** — Fran Tudor out (injury), 404 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Arka Gdynia key absence** — Kike Hermoso out (suspension), 540 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .