# Standard Liège vs Sporting Charleroi > Pro League · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1017) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Standard Liège win:** 54% - **Draw:** 31% - **Sporting Charleroi win:** 14% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 1.90 | bet365 | 59% | +6.6 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Standard Liège enter favourites with clear Elo and model edge ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC in a Pro League fixture[^fact-1]. Standard Liège are the nominal home side[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Standard Liège’s recent ten-match line reads WDWWD, recorded as 5-3-2 (W‑D‑L) with 1.80 points per game and 1.70 goals scored against 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Sporting Charleroi’s ten-match sequence is DLWWW, recorded as 4-2-4 (W‑D‑L) with 1.40 points per game and 1.00 goals scored against 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model gives the home side a 54% chance, a 23 percentage-point gap to the next outcome, with draw at 31% and away at 14%[^fact-2]. That aligns with Standard Liège’s demonstrable Elo advantage: an applied differential of +168 points in their favour[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Standard Liège’s most in-form attacker over the last five appearances is Rafiki Saïd: 3 goals, 1 assist and an average rating of 7.84[^fact-7]. Sporting Charleroi’s form player in recent matches is Kevin Van Den Kerkhof: 1 goal, 3 assists and an average rating of 7.21[^fact-8]. The two critical absences to note are Casper Nielsen out through injury after contributing 688 minutes in the recent run for Standard Liège[^fact-9], and Yassine Titraoui out injured after 546 minutes in Sporting Charleroi’s recent sequence[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags Under 2.5 goals as a value pick: model probability 59% versus a market price of 1.90 at bet365, yielding an edge of 6.6 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-6]. The markets analysed numbered three compared against the model’s outputs[^fact-11]. The combination of both teams conceding 0.90 goals per match in their recent runs[^fact-4][^fact-5] and the model’s explicit lean on fewer goals[^fact-6] is the arithmetic behind that angle. ## Verdict The model leans clearly to the home side with a 54% probability[^fact-2], supported by a +168 Elo differential[^fact-3], Standard Liège’s stronger points-per-game and goals profile in the sample[^fact-4], and a tangible market edge on Under 2.5 goals where the model assigns 59% probability compared with available prices[^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Pro League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 54% / Draw 31% / Away 14% (source: model; confidence high, 23 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STL vs SPC — Elo differential +168 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STL recent form** — WDWWD last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SPC recent form** — DLWWW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 59% vs market price 1.90 at bet365, edge 6.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **STL in-form player** — Rafiki Saïd — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.84. [^fact-8]: **SPC in-form player** — Kevin Van Den Kerkhof — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.21. [^fact-9]: **STL key absence** — Casper Nielsen out (injury), 688 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **SPC key absence** — Yassine Titraoui out (injury), 546 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .