# Bologna vs Inter > Serie A · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1020) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Bologna 3–3 Inter ## Model verdict - **Bologna win:** 12% - **Draw:** 19% - **Inter win:** 69% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Inter heavy favourites as Bologna face steep uphill fight ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 23 May 2026, 16:00 UTC in Serie A[^fact-1]. The fixture presents a clear home-versus-away framing in league context, with the model treating the visiting side as the dominant pick[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences underline a gulf in current momentum. Bologna arrive with a last-10 string of WWDLL, recorded as 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats over that span[^fact-4]. That run equates to 1.60 points per game, with an attacking output of 1.00 goals scored and a defensive concession rate of 1.10 per match[^fact-4]. Inter show a markedly stronger set of results: DWWWD for their last 10, expressed as 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in that window[^fact-5]. That translates to 2.40 points per game, while averaging 2.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The historical-quality gap picked up by Elo is substantial: the match-level Elo differential, with home advantage applied, sits at -173 in favour of the visitors[^fact-3]. The model’s probability distribution aligns with both form and Elo, giving the away side a 69% chance, a draw 19%, and the home team a 12% chance[^fact-2]. The model’s lead over the runner-up is described as high confidence, with a 50 percentage-point gap to the second-ranked outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Bologna’s most mentioned in-form attacking outlet is Riccardo Orsolini, who has 2 goals and 0 assists across his last five appearances, carrying an average match rating of 7.05 in that spell[^fact-7]. Conversely, Bologna will be without João Mário through injury; he logged 458 minutes in the recent run before missing this selection[^fact-9]. Those missing minutes remove a specific chunk of recent involvement from Bologna’s midfield picture[^fact-9]. Inter’s recent attacking spark is represented by Marcus Thuram, who recorded 3 goals and 1 assist in his last four appearances, with an average rating of 7.24 in that mini-run[^fact-8]. At the same time, the same player is listed as absent through injury for this match and accounted for 675 minutes in the recent run prior to his unavailability[^fact-10]. That duality matters: the model’s form inputs capture Thuram’s recent contributions but the team will be without him on matchday[^fact-8][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s core projected probabilities are Home 12% / Draw 19% / Away 69%[^fact-2]. Cross-checking markets yields a specific edge on the Over 2.5 goals line: the model assigns a 62% likelihood to Over 2.5, while the market price quoted at 1.70 on 1xbet implies a lower probability; the model–market gap is 3.2 percentage points, annotated with low confidence[^fact-6]. The review compared three market lines against the model’s outputs[^fact-11]. It is notable that the model’s heavy away lean and the Over 2.5 projection coexist with an expectation of contrasting defensive records: both sides’ recent concessions are listed at 1.10 goals per match, but Inter’s substantially higher scoring rate (2.60 goals per match) versus Bologna’s 1.00 goals per match informs the asymmetric risk of goals[^fact-5][^fact-4]. The Over 2.5 case in the model appears driven more by the visiting side’s firepower than by a breakdown of two fragile defences[^fact-5][^fact-4]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is firmly toward the away side at 69%, with a draw at 19% and the home outcome at 12%[^fact-2]. The Elo gap of -173 further underscores the scale of the challenge for the home team[^fact-3]. A secondary market signal worth noting is the modest model edge on Over 2.5 goals (62% vs market 1.70, edge 3.2 pp), though that specific edge is flagged as low confidence in the analysis[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 16:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 12% / Draw 19% / Away 69% (source: model; confidence high, 50 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BOL vs INT — Elo differential -173 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BOL recent form** — WWDLL last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **INT recent form** — DWWWD last 10: 7-3-0 (W-D-L), 2.40 PPG, 2.60 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 62% vs market price 1.70 at 1xbet, edge 3.2 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **BOL in-form player** — Riccardo Orsolini — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-8]: **INT in-form player** — Marcus Thuram — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.24. [^fact-9]: **BOL key absence** — João Mário out (injury), 458 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **INT key absence** — Marcus Thuram out (injury), 675 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .