# Cremonese vs Como > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1021) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Cremonese 1–4 Como ## Model verdict - **Cremonese win:** 10% - **Draw:** 21% - **Como win:** 70% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model heavily favours away side after sharp Elo swing ## The stage This Serie A fixture kicks off Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC[^fact-1] and pits the home side against the travelling outfit described in the model comparison as USC vs COM[^fact-3]. The date and competition set the immediate stakes: late-season league minutes in Italy's top flight[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines point in one clear direction. The model gives the away side a 70% chance of victory, compared with a 10% chance for the home team and 21% for a draw — a 49 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and a high-confidence projection[^fact-2]. That view is supported by a large Elo gap: the applied home advantage still leaves an Elo differential of -191 in the model's USC vs COM comparison[^fact-3]. On the surface form tables, the home side's last 10 matches read WWLLD (3-1-6) with 1.00 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.50 per match[^fact-4]. The visitors have a stronger recent record: WWDWL (5-2-3), 1.70 points per game, 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raw outputs — points per game and goals for/against — mirror the model's heavy lean to the away side[^fact-2][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Key form players for each side are evident in the recent five-game samples. Federico Bonazzoli is the in-form figure cited for the home side with 2 goals, 0 assists and an average rating of 7.29 in his last five appearances[^fact-9]. The visitors' standout over the same span is Lucas Da Cunha, with 1 goal, 1 assist and an average rating of 7.43[^fact-10]. Absences bite both teams but are more consequential for the visitors' creative rotation and the hosts' personnel depth. Romano Floriani Mussolini is out injured after contributing 346 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. The away side will be without Nico Paz, who logged 753 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-12]. Each absence is flagged in the model's projection process through the minutes-and-presence data supplied to the engine[^fact-11][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model[^fact-13], and the largest edges are clear: - No in Both Teams to Score is the top value pick: the model assigns 66% probability versus a market price of 2.05 at 888Sport — an edge of 17.7 percentage points and flagged as high confidence[^fact-6]. - The model's strongest single-result conviction is Away in Match Winner: 76% model probability against a market price of 1.63 at 1xbet, an edge of 14.7 percentage points and marked high confidence[^fact-7]. - Under in Goals O/U 2.5 shows a smaller but tangible edge: 51% model probability versus a market price of 2.25 at 1xbet, an edge of 7.0 percentage points and mid confidence[^fact-8]. These three contrasts — two high-confidence signals and one medium-confidence lean — map directly onto the model's heavier expectation for a low-scoring away success given the form and Elo signals[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model's lean is emphatic: an away win is the dominant outcome at 70%, supported by a -191 Elo gap with home advantage applied and reinforced by the visitors' superior recent points-per-game and defensive numbers[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. The clearest market inefficiencies from the model are the No in Both Teams to Score and the Away Match Winner lines, followed by a mild tilt toward Under 2.5 goals — the three markets the model specifically compared against the market[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-13]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 10% / Draw 21% / Away 70% (source: model; confidence high, 49 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — USC vs COM — Elo differential -191 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **USC recent form** — WWLLD last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **COM recent form** — WWDWL last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 66% vs market price 2.05 at 888Sport, edge 17.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 76% vs market price 1.63 at 1xbet, edge 14.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 51% vs market price 2.25 at 1xbet, edge 7.0 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **USC in-form player** — Federico Bonazzoli — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.29. [^fact-10]: **COM in-form player** — Lucas Da Cunha  — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.43. [^fact-11]: **USC key absence** — Romano Floriani Mussolini out (injury), 346 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **COM key absence** — Nico Paz out (injury), 753 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .