# Fiorentina vs Atalanta > Serie A · Kickoff Fri 22 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1022) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Fiorentina win:** 16% - **Draw:** 28% - **Atalanta win:** 56% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.32 | 1xbet | 56% | +12.8 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavy on Atalanta despite tight recent form ## The stage This fixture is a late-May Serie A encounter kicking off Fri 22 May 2026, 18:45 UTC.[^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Fiorentina arrive with a ten-match sequence recorded as WDLDD and an output of 1.70 points per game; their goal numbers read 1.00 scored and 0.70 conceded per match in that span.[^fact-4] Atalanta's last ten are LWDLD, producing 1.30 points per game with 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match.[^fact-5] The model applies an Elo assessment that places Fiorentina behind by eight points even after home advantage is included.[^fact-3] These strands pull in different directions: Fiorentina's recent points-per-game and defensive concession rate suggest sturdiness over the past ten matches, while Atalanta's slightly lower points-per-game sits alongside a higher goals-for figure, indicating a more volatile attacking profile.[^fact-4][^fact-5] The model's probabilistic outcome, however, gives a clear tilt: 56% for an away win, 28% for the draw and 16% for the home result, with a stated high confidence and a 28 percentage-point gap to the runner-up.[^fact-2] ## Personnel Fiorentina's in-form trigger is Rolando Mandragora, who has contributed one goal and one assist across his last four appearances and carries an average rating of 7.05 in that period.[^fact-7] Atalanta's nearest comparable hot streak belongs to Nikola Krstović, with one goal and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.68.[^fact-8] Absences matter: Fiorentina will be without Luca Ranieri due to suspension after he logged 881 minutes in the recent run.[^fact-9] Atalanta are missing Giorgio Scalvini through injury, a player who accumulated 724 minutes in the same recent window.[^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The clearest market discrepancy identified is the Under 2.5 goals market. The model assigns a 56% probability to Under 2.5 while the market price at 1xbet sits at 2.32, producing an edge of 12.8 percentage points and ranked with high confidence.[^fact-6] This value note is one of three markets the model compared against the market.[^fact-11] Frame this edge against the quantitative picture above: Fiorentina's low conceded rate in the recent ten-match sample and Atalanta's moderate goals-per-game make a sub-2.5 outcome credible within the model's calculations, which is reflected in the stated probability and the market gap.[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6] ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward an Atalanta victory, assigning 56% probability to the away win versus 16% for the home side and 28% for the draw, with a substantial confidence margin to the runner-up.[^fact-2] The most actionable discrepancy identified against the market is the Under 2.5 goals line (model 56% vs market 2.32 at 1xbet; edge 12.8 pp).[^fact-6][^fact-11] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 22 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 16% / Draw 28% / Away 56% (source: model; confidence high, 28 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FIO vs ATA — Elo differential -8 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FIO recent form** — WDLDD last 10: 4-5-1 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ATA recent form** — LWDLD last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 2.32 at 1xbet, edge 12.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **FIO in-form player** — Rolando Mandragora — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-8]: **ATA in-form player** — Nikola Krstović — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.68. [^fact-9]: **FIO key absence** — Luca Ranieri out (suspension), 881 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **ATA key absence** — Giorgio Scalvini out (injury), 724 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .