# Hellas Verona vs Roma > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1023) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Hellas Verona 0–2 Roma ## Model verdict - **Hellas Verona win:** 8% - **Draw:** 10% - **Roma win:** 82% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model heavily favours Roma as Pellegrini-less Verona face uphill task ## The stage This late‑May Serie A fixture kicks off Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC[^fact-1]. It is a straightforward league match whose immediate context must be read from form lines and projected probabilities rather than any supplied cup or playoff framing[^fact-1]. Hellas Verona will host Roma with a model that gives the away side the overwhelming chance of taking the three points[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum The model’s spread between outcomes is decisive: Away 82%, Draw 10%, Home 8% — a 72 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up that the modelling team flags as high confidence[^fact-2]. The underlying Elo picture helps explain why. Applied with home advantage, Verona sit 313 Elo points behind Roma, a gulf that normally translates into consistent superiority for the visitors[^fact-3]. Recent form corroborates that gap. Verona’s last‑ten record reads D L D D L — presented as 1 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses — generating 0.60 points per game and an average of 0.50 goals scored while conceding 1.10 per match[^fact-4]. Roma present the opposite trajectory: W W W W D in their last five form snapshot and, across ten matches, 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, producing 1.90 points per game with 2.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Both the raw Elo differential and the last‑ten numbers point to a side on top and a side in decline — momentum strongly with the away team[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Verona’s most in‑form attacking outlet in the data is Kieron Bowie: 2 goals and 0 assists in his last 4 appearances, carrying an average match rating of 7.03[^fact-8]. That level of recent output is notable for a team averaging only 0.50 goals per match across the last ten, which suggests scoring returns are concentrated in a small number of contributors[^fact-4][^fact-8]. Verona will also be without Roberto Gagliardini through suspension; he accounts for 869 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a heavy‑minute figure from the side[^fact-10]. For Roma, Donyell Malen is the clear form man supplied in the brief: 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances, with an average rating of 7.26[^fact-9]. Roma do have an important defensive absence: Zeki Çelik is out with injury and represents 713 minutes of recent involvement for the visitors[^fact-11]. The supplied data does not quantify how those minutes are replaced, but the profiles of the available attacking and defensive contributors favour the away team on balance[^fact-9][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Two edges emerge when comparing model probabilities to market prices. First, the model assigns a 62% probability to "No" on Both Teams to Score while the market price at 888Sport sits at 1.73, representing an implied probability lower than the model by about 4.6 percentage points; confidence in this edge is rated mid by the model[^fact-6]. Second, the model’s match‑winner distribution assigns a 77% chance to an away victory while the market price for an away winner at 1xbet implies a somewhat smaller probability; the difference is around 3.1 percentage points though the model marks that edge as low confidence[^fact-7]. These comparisons were drawn across three markets analysed against the model[^fact-12]. The combination of a heavy Elo deficit for the hosts, a low scoring rate for Verona, and an in‑form Roma attacker underpins the No Both Teams to Score lean: Verona average just 0.50 goals per match in the recent sample and Roma still average 1.20 conceded, which creates a numerical rationale for a match with asymmetric scoring risk[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The markets compared are the exact instruments where those probabilities were assessed[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s view is clear and unambiguous: Roma are heavily favoured to win (82% model probability) while Verona are long shots at home (8%), a stance supported by a −313 Elo differential and divergent recent form numbers[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. The clearest model‑market edge in the supplied data is on No Both Teams to Score (model 62% vs market 1.73 at 888Sport), with an additional but lower‑confidence leaning on an away match winner (model 77% vs market 1.35 at 1xbet); these were derived from three markets the desk compared to the model[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 10% / Away 82% (source: model; confidence high, 72 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — VER vs ROM — Elo differential -313 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **VER recent form** — DLDDL last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ROM recent form** — WWWWD last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 62% vs market price 1.73 at 888Sport, edge 4.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.35 at 1xbet, edge 3.1 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **VER in-form player** — Kieron Bowie — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.03. [^fact-9]: **ROM in-form player** — Donyell Malen — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.26. [^fact-10]: **VER key absence** — Roberto Gagliardini out (suspension), 869 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **ROM key absence** — Zeki Çelik out (injury), 713 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .