# Hellas Verona vs Roma > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1023) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Hellas Verona win:** 8% - **Draw:** 10% - **Roma win:** 83% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Roma’s late-season surge meets Verona’s wobble at the Stadio Marc’Antonio ## The stage This is a season-ender with consequence: a Serie A fixture kicking off Sun 24 May 2026, 00:00 UTC. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Form lines could not be clearer: Verona arrive in a severe slide, producing just one win, three draws and six defeats in their last ten matches and averaging 0.60 points per game with 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-2] Roma, by contrast, have a rich run — four wins and a draw in their last five and a 6-1-3 record over ten games — translating to 1.90 points per game while scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.20 per match. [^fact-3] Put bluntly, the momentum is with Roma: recent output and defensive returns both favour the visitors, and the statistical split between 0.60 PPG for Verona and 1.90 PPG for Roma frames this as a one-sided run of form. [^fact-2] [^fact-3] ## Personnel Verona’s most relevant attacking spark in the current run is Kieron Bowie, who has two goals and no assists in his last four appearances and an average match rating of 7.03. [^fact-4] Roma’s hot hand is Donyell Malen: three goals and two assists across his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.26. [^fact-5] Absences complicate selection. Verona will be without Daniel Oyegoke due to injury; he has played 358 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-6] Roma are missing Zeki Çelik through injury after 713 minutes in their recent run. [^fact-7] Those availability notes matter for different reasons: Verona lose a player who featured for 358 minutes of their preparation window, while Roma are minus a player who logged 713 minutes — the raw minute totals indicate how integral each absence has been to recent match patterns. [^fact-6] [^fact-7] ## Where the model sees value The model’s edges concentrate on two practical angles that can be expressed without inventing external prices. First, the probability framework built on recent-perf differentials tilts decisively toward Roma: 1.90 PPG, 2.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match create an offensive and points advantage against a Verona profile producing 0.60 PPG with 0.50 scored and 1.10 conceded. [^fact-3] [^fact-2] Second, match-impacting personnel trends reinforce that tilt. Donyell Malen’s five-game contribution of three goals and two assists, and his 7.26 average rating, signal an attacking outlet capable of exploiting the gaps Verona have shown; Kieron Bowie’s two goals in four and 7.03 rating are notable but sit against a broader team slide. [^fact-5] [^fact-4] Available minutes data on absences sharpen the projection rather than reverse it: losing a player after 713 minutes in the recent run for Roma is a setback, but the visitors’ collective form metrics still outpace Verona’s, who are missing a 358-minute contributor. [^fact-7] [^fact-6] Given those inputs, the model identifies value in backing Roma to carry momentum into the final fixture and expects a match where Roma’s higher attacking output is the decisive factor. [^fact-3] [^fact-5] ## Verdict The scene is set for Roma to convert form into result: superior recent output (1.90 PPG, 2.00 goals scored) and a hotter attacking profile around Donyell Malen (three goals, two assists, 7.26 rating) outweigh Verona’s struggles (1-3-6, 0.60 PPG) despite the absences on both sides. [^fact-3] [^fact-5] [^fact-2] [^fact-6] [^fact-7] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 00:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **VER recent form** — DLDDL last 10: 1-3-6 (W-D-L), 0.60 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **ROM recent form** — WWWWD last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **VER in-form player** — Kieron Bowie — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.03. [^fact-5]: **ROM in-form player** — Donyell Malen — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.26. [^fact-6]: **VER key absence** — Daniel Oyegoke out (injury), 358 minutes in recent run. [^fact-7]: **ROM key absence** — Zeki Çelik out (injury), 713 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .