# Lazio vs Pisa > Serie A · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1024) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Lazio 2–1 Pisa ## Model verdict - **Lazio win:** 78% - **Draw:** 15% - **Pisa win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear title: dominant home edge meets brittle visitors ## The stage This is a Serie A fixture kicking off Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC[^fact-1]. The model gives a pronounced home lean: Home 78% / Draw 15% / Away 7%, with a high-confidence 63 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. Treat this as a match where the objective probabilities are skewed heavily toward the hosts[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form and underlying metrics point the same direction. The home side (LAZ) sits on a LLLWD run over the last 10 matches, returning 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses for 1.40 points per game, scoring 1.10 and conceding 1.30 on average[^fact-4]. The visitors (PIS) are in drastically worse shape: LLLLL across their last 10, a 1-0-9 record with 0.30 points per game, 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. That gulf shows up in Elo as well: an Elo differential of +352 in favor of LAZ after adjusting for home advantage[^fact-3]. Momentum, defensive solidity and rating systems all align toward the hosts[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Spotlight players and absences matter for how those numbers will translate on the pitch. For LAZ, Tijjani Noslin has been the most noticeable in-form contributor, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.06[^fact-9]. For PIS, Simone Canestrelli carries the clearest recent statistical imprint with 1 goal in his last 5 and an average rating of 6.47[^fact-10]. Availability concerns are asymmetric and consequential. LAZ will be without Edoardo Motta through injury; Motta accounted for 810 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. PIS must cope without Antonio Caracciolo because of suspension; Caracciolo contributed 900 minutes in the same recent sample[^fact-12]. Those absences remove familiar minutes on both sides, but the visitors’ existing goals-conceded profile suggests replacement strains may be harder to absorb[^fact-5][^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model was run against three market lines and identified edges that align with the match-level probabilities[^fact-13]. The clearest value: Home in Match Winner — the model prices the home win at 71% versus a market price of 1.77 at 1xbet, producing an edge of 14.4 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. A complementary market is Both Teams to Score: the model assigns No at 66% versus a market price of 1.91 at 888Sport, an edge of 13.3 points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. That reflects the expectation that the visitors’ attacking output (0.50 goals per match recently) and the hosts’ concession rate (1.30) point toward limited opponent scoring[^fact-5][^fact-4]. Finally, the Under 2.5 Goals line shows a modest edge: model 53% versus a market price of 2.09 at 1xbet, an edge of 5.1 points (mid confidence)[^fact-8]. The trio of edges — match-winner, both-teams-to-score (No), and Under 2.5 — are internally consistent with an expectation for a controlled home win and a low-scoring contest[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: Home 78% with a confidence gap to the next outcome of 63 percentage points, backed by a +352 Elo advantage and a broad contrast in recent form and per-game outputs[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Expect the hosts to enter this fixture as heavy favourites, with the market edges concentrated on a home victory and on lower-scoring outcomes where the visitors fail to find the net[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 78% / Draw 15% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 63 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LAZ vs PIS — Elo differential +352 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LAZ recent form** — LLLWD last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **PIS recent form** — LLLLL last 10: 1-0-9 (W-D-L), 0.30 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 2.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 71% vs market price 1.77 at 1xbet, edge 14.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 66% vs market price 1.91 at 888Sport, edge 13.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 53% vs market price 2.09 at 1xbet, edge 5.1 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **LAZ in-form player** — Tijjani Noslin — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.06. [^fact-10]: **PIS in-form player** — Simone Canestrelli — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.47. [^fact-11]: **LAZ key absence** — Edoardo Motta out (injury), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **PIS key absence** — Antonio Caracciolo out (suspension), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .