# Lazio vs Pisa > Serie A · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1024) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Lazio win:** 78% - **Draw:** 15% - **Pisa win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | btts | No | 1.91 | 888Sport | 66% | +13.3 pp | | totals | Under | 2.09 | 1xbet | 53% | +5.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy Elo gap and a model leaning toward a routine home win ## The stage A late-May Serie A fixture kicks off on Sat 23 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC, the final rounds of the domestic calendar where points and pride are still in play[^fact-1]. The model gives a clear probability distribution to the result: Home 78%, Draw 15%, Away 7% — a one-sided forecast with a sizable confidence margin to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. Three markets were analysed against that model view[^fact-12]. ## Form & momentum The quantitative picture is blunt. Lazio carry an Elo advantage of +352 points after home advantage is applied, a gulf that the model treats as material in match-up terms[^fact-3]. Recent form for Lazio reads LLLWD across the last ten matches (4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses), translating to 1.40 points per game and an attacking/defensive output of 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Pisa arrive on a long negative run: LLLLL across the last ten (1 win, 0 draws, 9 losses), posting 0.30 points per game with only 0.50 goals scored while shipping 2.50 on average[^fact-5]. The combination of the Elo edge and the form lines makes clear which side is on the front foot in momentum terms[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Three individual data points to watch. For Lazio, Tijjani Noslin has registered 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.06 over that sample — a modest but recent attacking contribution that matters in tight domestic ties[^fact-8]. Pisa’s notable contributor in recent weeks is Simone Canestrelli, with 1 goal in his last five and an average rating of 6.47[^fact-9]. Availability shapes selection too: Lazio will be without Edoardo Motta through injury, a player who accounted for 810 minutes in the recent run and whose absence removes a chunk of minutes from their rotation[^fact-10]. Pisa lose Antonio Caracciolo to suspension; he logged 900 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes defensive continuity for an already struggling side[^fact-11]. All named players and minute totals here come directly from the supplied recent-run metrics[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies two clear market edges against current pricing across the three markets scanned[^fact-12]. First, a No in Both Teams to Score selection is flagged at 66% by the model versus a market price of 1.91 at 888Sport, an edge of 13.3 percentage points and described with high confidence in the model output[^fact-6]. That signal dovetails with the teams’ recent scoring and conceding rates: Pisa’s 0.50 goals per game and Lazio’s slightly above one goal per game make a low likelihood of both teams scoring plausible in the model’s view[^fact-5][^fact-4]. Second, the model prefers Under 2.5 goals with a 53% probability versus a market price of 2.09 at 1xBet, an edge of 5.1 percentage points with mid-level confidence[^fact-7]. The under recommendation aligns with the defensive skew in the underlying numbers — Lazio conceding 1.30 per match and Pisa conceding 2.50 per match — and with the model’s overall lean toward a single-sided outcome that does not require a high combined goal tally[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Both value calls reference the exact market prices and probability edges supplied[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: a home win is the primary expectation at 78%, with draw and away probabilities at 15% and 7% respectively, and a large confidence gap to the runner-up projection[^fact-2]. The substantial Elo cushion and the divergent form lines underpin that lean[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5], while personnel absences and recent-minute contributions shape how the lineups might be balanced at kick-off[^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-8][^fact-9]. On the markets analysed, the clearest model edges are against both teams to score and for under 2.5 goals, where the model probabilities exceed the market prices by material margins[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 78% / Draw 15% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 63 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LAZ vs PIS — Elo differential +352 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LAZ recent form** — LLLWD last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **PIS recent form** — LLLLL last 10: 1-0-9 (W-D-L), 0.30 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 2.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 66% vs market price 1.91 at 888Sport, edge 13.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 53% vs market price 2.09 at 1xbet, edge 5.1 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **LAZ in-form player** — Tijjani Noslin — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.06. [^fact-9]: **PIS in-form player** — Simone Canestrelli — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.47. [^fact-10]: **LAZ key absence** — Edoardo Motta out (injury), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **PIS key absence** — Antonio Caracciolo out (suspension), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .