# Lecce vs Genoa > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1025) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Lecce 1–0 Genoa ## Model verdict - **Lecce win:** 25% - **Draw:** 42% - **Genoa win:** 33% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Low-scoring, tight contest tipped by the numbers ## The stage This Serie A fixture kicks off on Sun 24 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC, a late‑evening slot that often tightens games as seasons wind down[^fact-1]. The match sits in that end‑of‑season window where marginal edges and single absences can tilt results[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model gives a surprisingly split picture: home win probability 25%, draw 42% and away 33% — the draw is the modal outcome, with the away side only slightly behind the draw in probability[^fact-2]. The Elo comparison, with the home advantage already applied, favors the home side by +23 points on the scale used here[^fact-3]. Recent on‑field form points in the away side's favour on balance. The home team's last 10 matches read WLWDD (3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses), averaging 1.10 points per game, 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors’ ten‑match sequence is LDDLW (4 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses), with 1.40 points per game, 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those underlying figures show similarly modest attacking returns for both sides (0.90 goals per game each), but the visitors have conceded fewer on average (1.10 versus 1.40), which helps explain why the model rates the draw and away options competitively despite the Elo edge[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Two players stand out for recent influence. Walid Cheddira has 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances, carrying an average match rating of 7.14 in that spell[^fact-8]. Johan Vásquez is the visiting side’s form pick with 1 goal in his last four outings and a 7.02 average rating over that run[^fact-9]. Absences matter here. The home team will be missing Sadik Fofana through injury; he logged 86 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-10]. The visitors are without Vitinha due to suspension; he had accumulated 651 minutes in the recent run prior to missing this match[^fact-11]. Those minutes totals quantify how integral each player had been to recent squads[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights two clear market dislocations with high confidence. First, Under 2.5 goals is strongly favoured by the model at an 80% probability versus a market price of 1.68 at 1xBet — an edge of 20.7 percentage points and described as high confidence by the model[^fact-6]. Second, the model also favours "No" on Both Teams to Score at 73% against a market price of 1.70 at 888Sport — an edge of 14.1 percentage points, again flagged as high confidence[^fact-7]. These market contrasts come from three markets analysed against the model[^fact-12][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Both value picks align with the match profile implied by the recent data: low average goals for both sides (0.90 each), a modest defensive advantage for the away team, and an elevated draw probability from the model — all consistent with closed, low‑scoring affairs[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-2]. The absence of midfield minutes from Vitinha and the summer‑late timing of the fixture can further suppress open play, as reflected in the model’s high confidence in the low‑scoring outcomes[^fact-11][^fact-1]. ## Verdict The model leans to a tight game where the draw is the single most likely result and low scoring is expected: draw is the modal outcome (42%), but the away option is close (33%) despite a home Elo edge (+23) — the clearest market edges sit on Under 2.5 goals and Both Teams Not To Score according to model‑market comparisons[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 25% / Draw 42% / Away 33% (source: model; confidence mid, 9 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LEC vs GEN — Elo differential +23 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LEC recent form** — WLWDD last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GEN recent form** — LDDLW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 80% vs market price 1.68 at 1xbet, edge 20.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 73% vs market price 1.70 at 888Sport, edge 14.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **LEC in-form player** — Walid Cheddira — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-9]: **GEN in-form player** — Johan Vásquez — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.02. [^fact-10]: **LEC key absence** — Sadik Fofana out (injury), 86 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **GEN key absence** — Vitinha out (suspension), 651 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .