# Lecce vs Genoa > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1025) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Lecce win:** 22% - **Draw:** 50% - **Genoa win:** 28% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 1.68 | 1xbet | 80% | +20.7 pp | | btts | No | 1.70 | 888Sport | 73% | +14.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Fine Margins: Attack Fragility vs Defensive Solidity Tested ## The stage This match lands on Sun 24 May 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC in Serie A[^fact-1]. The game carries the finality of a late-season fixture where margins are small and form runs tell more than reputation[^fact-1]. The venue is not specified in the supplied facts. ## Form & momentum Lecce arrive with a mixed return from their last 10 matches: WLWDD, recorded as 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, producing 1.10 points per game and an average of 0.90 goals scored while conceding 1.40 per match[^fact-2]. That sequence suggests a side capable of occasional attacking flashes but structurally fragile at the back based on the conceded average[^fact-2]. Genoa’s recent run is slightly cleaner on the balance sheet: LDDLW, recorded as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, giving 1.40 points per game and an identical 0.90 goals scored per match to Lecce but conceding fewer, at 1.10 per match[^fact-3]. The differential in points per game and goals conceded indicates a small edge in steadiness for Genoa over the sample provided[^fact-3]. Viewed purely on these short-term numbers, Genoa carry marginally more momentum — higher points per game and tighter defensive returns — while both clubs share a similar attacking output based on goals scored per match in this window[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Lecce’s most notable in-form attacker is Walid Cheddira: 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.14 over that spell[^fact-4]. That output makes him the clear focal point for Lecce’s attacking threat in the recent run[^fact-4]. Lecce are missing Sadik Fofana through injury; he has played 86 minutes in the recent run before that absence is noted[^fact-6]. The exact positional impact is not specified in the facts, but the absence is flagged as significant in the supplied material[^fact-6]. For Genoa the standout in-form name in the supplied facts is Johan Vásquez, who has 1 goal in his last four appearances and an average rating of 7.02 across those games[^fact-5]. Genoa are carrying the absence of Junior Messias with injury status noted and 349 minutes recorded in his recent run before the absence is referenced[^fact-7]. Messias’s unavailability is a clear availability concern in the provided facts[^fact-7]. Both sides therefore possess a named man to watch in form, and both are coping with an injury absence flagged as material in the supplied dataset[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s edges are drawn strictly from the supplied short-term metrics. Two angles stand out: - Defensive baseline: Genoa concede 1.10 goals per match in this sample versus Lecce’s 1.40, while both average 0.90 goals scored over the same period[^fact-2][^fact-3]. That suggests a small edge for Genoa in limiting chances and goals conceded across recent matches, which is a defensively driven advantage to lean on in markets that reward low expected goals outcomes (markets not listed here in the facts). The supplied numbers point toward over/under lines that favour fewer goals given both teams’ 0.90 goals scored averages[^fact-2][^fact-3]. - Impact players and replacement risk: Lecce’s attacking impetus is concentrated in Walid Cheddira — 3 goals and 1 assist in five, rating 7.14 — making his presence or neutralisation pivotal to Lecce creating chances[^fact-4]. Genoa’s loss of Junior Messias, flagged at 349 minutes in the recent run, introduces a question about whom Genoa will miss in attack or chance creation[^fact-7]. The model therefore flags value in markets that award returns for matches where one side’s primary chance-creator is contained or absent, given the concentrated contributions cited[^fact-4][^fact-7]. The facts do not include market odds or expected-goals figures, so the edges above are phrased as directional opportunities based solely on the supplied goals-for and goals-against numbers, and the named players’ recent output[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The data-fed lean is that this will be a tight, low-scoring encounter: both sides average 0.90 goals scored in the recent sample, and Genoa’s slightly stronger defensive numbers (1.10 conceded versus Lecce’s 1.40) give them a mild structural advantage — with the caveat that Walid Cheddira remains a concentrated source of goals for Lecce and Junior Messias’s absence is a material unknown for Genoa[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 00:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **LEC recent form** — WLWDD last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **GEN recent form** — LDDLW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **LEC in-form player** — Walid Cheddira — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.14. [^fact-5]: **GEN in-form player** — Johan Vásquez — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.02. [^fact-6]: **LEC key absence** — Sadik Fofana out (injury), 86 minutes in recent run. [^fact-7]: **GEN key absence** — Junior Messias out (injury), 349 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .