# Napoli vs Udinese > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 16:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1027) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Napoli 1–0 Udinese ## Model verdict - **Napoli win:** 75% - **Draw:** 15% - **Udinese win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Napoli clear favourites as model projects dominant home edge ## The stage This game kicks off Sun 24 May 2026, 16:00 UTC, a late-season Serie A fixture that hands clear home responsibility for the side hosting the match[^fact-1]. The model gives a pronounced home lean: Home 75% / Draw 15% / Away 10%[^fact-2]. That probability split frames expectations before a ball is kicked. ## Form & momentum Napoli enter on a streak shown by their last-10 record of WLDWL (6-2-2), producing 2.00 points per game and scoring 1.60 goals while conceding 0.80 per match[^fact-4]. Udinese’s recent sequence reads LWWDL (4-3-3), with 1.50 points per game, 1.40 goals scored and the same 0.80 conceded figure per match[^fact-5]. The Elo comparison underlines the gap: Napoli carry a +225-point edge after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Those three facts together point to Napoli as the hotter and structurally stronger side going into kickoff[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Napoli’s immediate attacking form is concentrated around Rasmus Højlund, who has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.98[^fact-8]. On Udinese’s side, Arthur Atta has 2 goals in his last five outings with an average rating of 7.09[^fact-9]. Absences are material for both teams: Napoli will be without Mathías Olivera through injury after 618 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10], while Udinese are missing Hassane Kamara through suspension after 795 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. These availability details narrow selection options and could tilt match-ups down the flanks given the minutes those players logged[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s top market edges are clear to extract given the odds on offer and the markets analysed[^fact-12]. First, a Home in Match Winner selection carries model probability 72% against a market price of 1.54 at 1xbet, giving an edge of 7.0 percentage points and mid confidence for that pick[^fact-6]. Second, an Under in Goals O/U 2.5 shows up as a smaller edge: model 53% versus market price 2.01 at 1xbet, an edge of 3.6 percentage points with low confidence[^fact-7]. Those two market comparisons come from the set of three markets analysed by the model ahead of the match[^fact-12]. The combination of a large Elo cushion for the hosts and both sides’ defensive concession rate of 0.80 per match in recent runs provides the model support for an under-2.5 case, albeit with only a narrow edge and lower confidence[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans firmly to the home side, assigning a 75% probability to the home win and a 10% chance to an away victory, driven by a +225 Elo differential, Napoli’s superior recent points-per-game and goal profile, and the market edges identified on the match-winner and under-2.5 markets[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 16:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 75% / Draw 15% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 60 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NAP vs UDI — Elo differential +225 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NAP recent form** — WLDWL last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **UDI recent form** — LWWDL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 72% vs market price 1.54 at 1xbet, edge 7.0 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 53% vs market price 2.01 at 1xbet, edge 3.6 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **NAP in-form player** — Rasmus Højlund — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.98. [^fact-9]: **UDI in-form player** — Arthur Atta — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.09. [^fact-10]: **NAP key absence** — Mathías Olivera out (injury), 618 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **UDI key absence** — Hassane Kamara out (suspension), 795 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .