# Parma vs Sassuolo > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1028) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Parma win:** 34% - **Draw:** 45% - **Sassuolo win:** 21% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 1.98 | 1xbet | 72% | +21.7 pp | | btts | No | 2.11 | 1xbet | 63% | +16.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Low-scoring scrap expected as model favours the draw ## The stage This Serie A fixture kicks off on Sun 24 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC, a late-season meeting with standing implications for both teams[^fact-1]. The model gives the home side a 34% chance, the draw 45%, and the away team 21% — a clear lean toward stalemate, with the model carrying a mid confidence and an 11 percentage-point gap back to the runner-up[^fact-2]. The Elo differential, with home advantage applied, edges the home side by +39 points[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent results point to a tight, low-output contest. The home side arrive on a run of LLLWW in their last ten, recorded as 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, yielding 0.90 points per game while scoring 0.70 and conceding 1.40 goals per match[^fact-4]. The visitors’ last ten read LLWDW, recorded as 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, producing 1.10 points per game with 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those numbers frame this as a matchup between two sides struggling for consistency and not averaging much goal threat. The Elo edge modestly favours the home side, but the model’s draw probability is the single largest outcome, suggesting expectations of a cagey game rather than an open, end-to-end affair[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel The most reliable attacking cues are limited. Gabriel Strefezza has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances, carrying an average rating of 7.07 among the home side’s recent performers[^fact-8]. On the opposite flank, Armand Laurienté has been the visitors’ standout, registering 2 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.63[^fact-9]. Key absences will shape selection decisions. Adrián Bernabé is out with injury after contributing 366 minutes in the recent run for the home side[^fact-10]. The visitors will also miss Sebastian Walukiewicz, who is out injured after 719 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Those absences remove familiar minutes and rhythm for their respective teams and could nudge both managers toward pragmatic setups given the broader defensive fragility shown in recent per-match goals conceded figures[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies two clear market inefficiencies across the three markets analysed[^fact-12]. First, the model projects Under 2.5 goals with 72% probability while the market price sits at 1.98 on 1xbet — an edge of 21.7 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model favours a No on Both Teams to Score at 63% versus the market price of 2.11 on 1xbet, representing an edge of 16.1 percentage points and likewise judged high confidence[^fact-7]. Both suggestions align with the recent scoring data: both sides are averaging near or below 1.2 goals per match and are conceding above one per match, a profile consistent with low aggregate scores and matches where one team can fail to score[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Those market edges are concentrated: three markets were compared against the model, with the two value plays highlighted above emerging as the top opportunities[^fact-12]. The model’s high-probability view on low goals and single-team scoring failure dovetails with the draw being the model’s single most likely outcome — a scoreless or sparsely scored draw would satisfy both the probabilistic forecast and the stated market inefficiencies[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans to a draw as the likeliest result while signalling substantive value in low-scoring outcomes: Under 2.5 goals is the strongest statistical call and No on Both Teams to Score is the secondary edge[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Given both teams’ subdued attacking returns, recent defensive records and the personnel absences noted, expect a tight, low-tempo fixture where clean sheets and narrow margins will decide the day[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 34% / Draw 45% / Away 21% (source: model; confidence mid, 11 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — PRM vs SAS — Elo differential +39 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **PRM recent form** — LLLWW last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SAS recent form** — LLWDW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 72% vs market price 1.98 at 1xbet, edge 21.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 63% vs market price 2.11 at 1xbet, edge 16.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **PRM in-form player** — Gabriel Strefezza — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.07. [^fact-9]: **SAS in-form player** — Armand Laurienté — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.63. [^fact-10]: **PRM key absence** — Adrián Bernabé out (injury), 366 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **SAS key absence** — Sebastian Walukiewicz out (injury), 719 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .