# Parma vs Sassuolo > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1028) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Parma 1–0 Sassuolo ## Model verdict - **Parma win:** 40% - **Draw:** 35% - **Sassuolo win:** 24% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tight, low-scoring game favoured by model despite narrow home edge ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sun 24 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Serie A[^fact-1]. The fixture pitches Parma[^fact-4] against Sassuolo[^fact-5] in a late-season clash that the model rates as competitive: Home 40% / Draw 35% / Away 24%[^fact-2]. The model’s confidence gap to the runner-up is small, labelled low with a 5 percentage-point gap to the next option[^fact-2]. The Elo line gives the home side a modest edge — an applied differential of +39 points in favour of the hosts[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences are close enough to argue parity. Parma’s last 10 reads as LLLWW and the model summarises that as 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses for a 0.90 points-per-game return, with 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Sassuolo’s last 10 shows LLWDW, recorded as 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses, producing 1.10 points per game, 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo differential still tips toward the home side by 39 points after applying home advantage[^fact-3], yet the recent-per-match numbers suggest a tight contest with modest scoring on both sides[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Parma’s in-form contributor to watch is Gabriel Strefezza — 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances, with an average rating of 7.07[^fact-8]. Sassuolo’s most notable recent performer is Armand Laurienté — 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances, average rating 7.63[^fact-9]. Availability issues matter: Parma will be without Enrico Delprato due to injury, a player who logged 785 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. Sassuolo are missing Sebastian Walukiewicz with an injury absence after 719 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Those absences remove two regularly used minutes totals from their respective sides and could increase the importance of the in-form attackers identified above[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model detects clear market edges on two low-scoring outcomes. First, Under in Goals O/U 2.5 is modelled at 72% against the market price of 1.98 on 1xbet, an edge of 21.7 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model favours No on Both Teams to Score at 63% versus the market pricing of 2.11 on 1xbet, an edge of 16.1 percentage points and likewise high confidence[^fact-7]. The analysis compared three markets to the model across this matchday slate[^fact-12], with these two outcomes producing the largest statistical discrepancies between model probabilities and market-implied prices[^fact-6][^fact-7]. The underlying team data underpinning the low-scoring view aligns with Parma’s 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match and Sassuolo’s 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded per match over their recent runs — figures that point toward modest attacking returns on both sides[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side but calls this a close game: Home 40% / Draw 35% / Away 24%[^fact-2], with an Elo boost of +39 points for the hosts after applying home advantage[^fact-3]. Where the quantitative edge is clearest is on match flow rather than match-winner markets — the model strongly prefers low-scoring outcomes (Under 2.5 at 72%) and projects a higher likelihood that both teams will not score (No BTTS at 63%), edges that stand out against the market prices listed on 1xbet[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 40% / Draw 35% / Away 24% (source: model; confidence low, 5 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — PRM vs SAS — Elo differential +39 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **PRM recent form** — LLLWW last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SAS recent form** — LLWDW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 72% vs market price 1.98 at 1xbet, edge 21.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 63% vs market price 2.11 at 1xbet, edge 16.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **PRM in-form player** — Gabriel Strefezza — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.07. [^fact-9]: **SAS in-form player** — Armand Laurienté — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.63. [^fact-10]: **PRM key absence** — Enrico Delprato out (injury), 785 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **SAS key absence** — Sebastian Walukiewicz out (injury), 719 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .