# Torino vs Juventus > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1029) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Torino win:** 20% - **Draw:** 21% - **Juventus win:** 59% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### In-form Juventus arrive; Torino search for attacking spark ## The stage A late-May Serie A fixture kicks off on Sun 24 May 2026 at 00:00 UTC, a match that closes the domestic slate for both sides in a calendar-jammed run of fixtures[^fact-1]. The neutral-watch angle is simple: this is a traditional local contest where marginal differences in form and availability will decide outcomes[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Torino arrive in uneven shape. Over the last 10 league outings their record reads LWLDD — a 4-2-4 split of wins, draws and losses — producing 1.40 points per game; they have averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match in that window[^fact-2]. Juventus are distinctly warmer: their last-10 line is LWDDW, a 6-3-1 record that equates to 2.10 points per game; defensively they have been compact, conceding 0.40 goals per match while scoring 1.30 on average[^fact-3]. The arithmetic is blunt. Juventus’ points-per-game and defensive numbers signal clearer momentum than Torino’s attacking and defensive balance, a combination that on paper hands them the initiative heading into this derby[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Torino’s leading attacking reference in recent weeks has been Giovanni Simeone, who has scored twice in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 6.74 across that run; he has no assists in those five games[^fact-4]. The most consequential absence for Torino is Marcus Pedersen, sidelined through injury and missing 584 minutes of the recent run — a durability gap that forces tactical adjustments up front[^fact-6]. Juventus’ in-form contributor to watch is Weston McKennie: no goals but one assist in his last five appearances, and an average match rating of 7.30 across that sample[^fact-5]. Their notable offensive absence is Dušan Vlahović, whose injury has cost him 224 minutes of recent action and removes a focal point from the final third[^fact-7]. Those availability notes matter because both sides must reconcile goal sources: Torino’s recent numbers point to a modest scoring output driven in part by Simeone’s finishing, while Juventus, despite missing Vlahović, show a defensive profile that has been stronger than their attack in the last 10 matches[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value - Edge 1 — Defensive tilt in Juventus’ favour: Juventus have conceded 0.40 goals per match in the last 10 outings, a clear contrast with Torino’s 1.40 conceded per match; the data gives the model confidence that Juventus can keep this low-scoring and control transitions[^fact-3][^fact-2]. - Edge 2 — Torino dependence on Simeone: Torino’s modest 1.50 goals per match in the sample and Simeone’s two goals in five appearances suggest a narrow source of attacking violence; the model flags matches where Simeone is neutralised as lower probability for Torino goal inflation[^fact-2][^fact-4]. - Edge 3 — Impact of absences on attacking profiles: Juventus are missing Vlahović and therefore a classic number-nine presence for 224 minutes of the recent run, while Torino have lost Pedersen for 584 minutes; the model treats those minutes as asymmetric disruptions that marginally blunt both sides’ conversion chances but favour the better-organised defence across the run[^fact-7][^fact-6]. These edges do not translate to certainty, only probabilistic tilt. The clearest, modelled advantage comes from Juventus’ defensive run combined with Torino’s reliance on a narrow attacking outlet[^fact-3][^fact-4]. ## Verdict The newsroom’s lean: Juventus arrive with clearer momentum and a defensive profile that should neutralise Torino’s limited attacking variety; expect a controlled, low-severity match where marginal defensive superiority decides the outcome[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 00:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **TOR recent form** — LWLDD last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-3]: **JUV recent form** — LWDDW last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 0.40 conceded per match. [^fact-4]: **TOR in-form player** — Giovanni Simeone — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.74. [^fact-5]: **JUV in-form player** — Weston McKennie — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.30. [^fact-6]: **TOR key absence** — Marcus Pedersen out (injury), 584 minutes in recent run. [^fact-7]: **JUV key absence** — Dušan Vlahović out (injury), 224 minutes in recent run. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .