# Deportivo Alavés vs Rayo Vallecano > La Liga · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1031) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Deportivo Alavés 1–2 Rayo Vallecano ## Model verdict - **Deportivo Alavés win:** 22% - **Draw:** 35% - **Rayo Vallecano win:** 42% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model favors Rayo but margins point to a tight affair ## The stage This fixture kicks off on Sat 23 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC in La Liga, a late-season meeting where small margins matter for both objective and momentum[^fact-1]. The match is a home game for Alavés, a detail already reflected in the model’s pre-match calibration[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences show both sides arriving with similar headline numbers. Alavés have compiled a WWDLW pattern over their last 10 matches, delivering 1.60 points per game while averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Rayo Vallecano’s last 10 read WDDWD, also yielding 1.60 points per game but with a cleaner goal profile: 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model grades Rayo as the more likely winner, assigning an away probability of 42%, with the draw the second-most likely outcome on 35% and a home win only 22%[^fact-2]. That margin is supported by an Elo differential of +39 points in favour of the visitors after accounting for home advantage[^fact-3]. Put simply: raw form points are near-identical, but underlying strength metrics tilt towards Rayo[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Alavés carry attacking momentum through Toni Martínez, who has four goals and no assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.24 in that spell[^fact-7]. Rayo’s front line is getting a similar nudge from Sergio Camello, who has three goals, zero assists, and a 7.30 average rating across his last four outings[^fact-8]. Those two players are the clearest short-term form influences on either side[^fact-7][^fact-8]. Availability alters planning. Alavés are missing Carlos Protesoni through injury; his recent involvement totals 21 minutes in the run referenced by the model[^fact-9]. Rayo will be without Isi Palazón through suspension, a player who accumulated 339 minutes in the sequence the model used[^fact-10]. Both absences are material: one represents an injured squad option with limited recent minutes, the other takes away a player with substantial recent pitch time[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Three market lines were compared against the model’s internal prices[^fact-11]. The clearest market edge flagged is on total goals: the model puts Over 2.5 goals at 52% probability versus a market price available at 2.06 (Sbo), an edge of roughly 3.2 percentage points (the model notes low confidence on this view)[^fact-6][^fact-11]. That is the only specific market edge highlighted by the comparative analysis; the main match-probability distribution instead favours Rayo and signals a high draw likelihood in the middle band[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans toward an away win (42%) with a sizeable draw probability (35%) and a smaller chance of a home victory (22%); Elo supports the visitor edge by +39 points once home advantage is applied[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Form metrics are finely balanced on points per game, but Rayo’s lower goals conceded figure and the model’s probabilities push the scale slightly in their favour, while absences and the recent scoring form of Toni Martínez and Sergio Camello keep the fixture open and the Over 2.5 market highlighted as the principal priced discrepancy[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — La Liga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 22% / Draw 35% / Away 42% (source: model; confidence mid, 7 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ALA vs RAY — Elo differential +39 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ALA recent form** — WWDLW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **RAY recent form** — WDDWD last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 52% vs market price 2.06 at Sbo, edge 3.2 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **ALA in-form player** — Toni Martínez — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.24. [^fact-8]: **RAY in-form player** — Sergio Camello — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.30. [^fact-9]: **ALA key absence** — Carlos Protesoni out (injury), 21 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **RAY key absence** — Isi Palazón out (suspension), 339 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .