# Real Betis vs Levante > La Liga · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1036) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Real Betis 2–1 Levante ## Model verdict - **Real Betis win:** 72% - **Draw:** 18% - **Levante win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home advantage and model edge make one-sided picture ## The stage Saturday’s meeting kicks off on 23 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC in La Liga[^fact-1]. The fixture sits late in the calendar and carries the usual domestic significance for both sides as a league match[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model delivers a clear verdict: Home 72% / Draw 18% / Away 10%, with a high-confidence separation from the runner-up by 54 percentage points[^fact-2]. The same quantitative view is reflected in an Elo differential that gives the home side a +186-point edge after accounting for home advantage[^fact-3]. Recent form, though, tells a slightly more nuanced story. The home side’s last 10 matches read LWDWD, a 3-5-2 record yielding 1.40 points per game, 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive in better rhythm over their last 10: WWWLD, a 6-2-2 record producing 2.00 points per game, 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model clearly favours the hosts despite the visitor’s hotter run, as expressed in the win probabilities and the Elo gap[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Key in-form contributors are easy to identify inside the supplied facts. For the home side, Abde Ezzalzouli has 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.43 over that spell[^fact-8]. For the away side, Kervin Arriaga brings 2 goals and 1 assist in his last four appearances with an average rating of 7.33[^fact-9]. Those numbers suggest both players are impacting their teams’ recent output, with the visitor’s attacking returns supporting the better points-per-game run cited earlier[^fact-5][^fact-9]. Availability issues matter: the home side will be without Aitor Ruibal due to injury; he contributed 463 minutes in the recent run prior to this absence[^fact-10]. The visitors are also missing a forward-decision with Iván Romero ruled out through injury after 440 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Those absences remove regular minutes from both squads and are the hardest personnel blows mentioned in the data[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s top market edge is the home Match Winner. The model prices the home win at 70% while the market at Pinnacle shows 2.37; that produces a 28.0 percentage-point edge and is flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. This is the clearest single discrepancy between model and market and aligns with the Elo advantage and model verdict cited earlier[^fact-3][^fact-2]. A secondary market identified by the model is Over 2.5 goals. The model gives Over 2.5 a 59% probability versus a market price of 1.79 at 1xbet, an edge of 3.0 percentage points, but the model labels this as low confidence[^fact-7]. The underlining data on goals per match for both teams shows modest scoring and conceding rates that temper enthusiasm here: the home side averages 1.50 goals for and 1.30 against in the last 10, while the visitors average 1.70 for and 1.40 against in their last 10[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The markets compared against the model total three in number[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisively toward the home side, both in raw probability (72%) and in Elo terms (+186), despite the visitors carrying stronger recent form in points per game and goals metrics[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. Abde Ezzalzouli and Kervin Arriaga are the most in-form individual influences cited, while the absences of Aitor Ruibal and Iván Romero remove significant minutes for their respective sides[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. The clearest market misprice against the model is the home Match Winner at Pinnacle, where the model’s 70% sits well above the available price implied by 2.37[^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — La Liga [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 72% / Draw 18% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 54 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BET vs LVT — Elo differential +186 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BET recent form** — LWDWD last 10: 3-5-2 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LVT recent form** — WWWLD last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 70% vs market price 2.37 at Pinnacle, edge 28.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 59% vs market price 1.79 at 1xbet, edge 3.0 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **BET in-form player** — Abde Ezzalzouli — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.43. [^fact-9]: **LVT in-form player** — Kervin Arriaga — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-10]: **BET key absence** — Aitor Ruibal out (injury), 463 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **LVT key absence** — Iván Romero out (injury), 440 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .