# SD Eibar vs Córdoba > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1043) **Status:** Live ## Model verdict - **SD Eibar win:** 77% - **Draw:** 14% - **Córdoba win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | btts | No | 2.10 | Betfair | 64% | +16.5 pp | | h2h | Home | 1.71 | Dafabet | 74% | +15.8 pp | | totals | Under | 2.11 | 1xbet | 60% | +13.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home side overwhelming favourites as season reaches decisive weekend ## The stage La Liga 2 reaches a decisive Sunday kickoff on 24 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC, with a match that matters for the closing run of the campaign[^fact-1]. The fixture comes with a heavy model lean towards the home side, which the market and form lines will have to contend with[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Eibar carry a clear statistical edge. Their recent run shows a 7-1-2 record in the last 10, producing 2.20 points per game, scoring 1.70 and conceding 0.80 on average[^fact-4]. Córdoba have strong recent momentum too — a 6-1-3 return in their last 10, 1.90 points per game, with 1.50 goals for and 1.50 against[^fact-5]. The Elo differential, with home advantage applied, is substantially in Eibar’s favour at +196 points, which underpins the expected gap between the sides[^fact-3]. These numbers paint two competent teams on reasonable runs, but the balance of probability is tilted toward the hosts: the model gives the home win a 77% chance, versus 15% for a draw and 9% for an away win, with a confidence gap of 62 percentage points to the nearest runner-up[^fact-2]. That split explains why pre-match narratives are centred on control and compactness from the home team rather than an open shootout. ## Personnel Eibar’s form is signposted by José Corpas, who arrives with two goals and two assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.18[^fact-9]. Corpas’s recent outputs correlate with Eibar’s attacking numbers and help explain the team’s 1.70 goals-per-game average in the recent run[^fact-4][^fact-9]. Córdoba’s in-form outlet is Cristian Carracedo, who has provided two assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.76[^fact-10]. Córdoba lose a notable body in Adilson, who is out injured after recent 75-minute appearances in the lead-up — that absence removes minutes and match rhythm from their recent pattern[^fact-11]. The direct numeric hits — Corpas’s goal contributions and Carracedo’s chance-creating trend — are the clearest on-field indicators available in the data[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model signals three clear edges relative to market pricing across three markets analysed[^fact-12]. First, “No in Both Teams to Score” is judged a 64% probability by the model versus a market price implying a lower likelihood at 2.10 on Betfair, producing an edge of 16.5 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model prices the Home Match Winner at 74%, while Dafabet’s price of 1.71 implies a materially lower model-implied probability; the stated edge is 15.8 percentage points and again marked high confidence[^fact-7]. Third, the model favours Under 2.5 goals at 60% against a market price of 2.11 on 1xbet, an edge of 13.1 percentage points and high confidence[^fact-8]. Those three markets together present a consistent story: the model expects Eibar to control matches, keep clean sheets at a higher rate than the market expects, and suppress total goals. The numerical edges are non-trivial across all three plays and are derived from a direct comparison between model probabilities and market-implied probabilities across the three markets analysed[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is emphatic: a home win is the primary expectation at 77% with strong supporting signals from Elo (+196) and Eibar’s superior defensive record in the recent sample, while the combination of a likely home victory and restrained scoring underpins the value calls in No BTTS and Under 2.5 goals[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6][^fact-8]. The market prices leave measurable edges in favour of the model across three analysed markets[^fact-12][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 77% / Draw 15% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 62 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — EIB vs Córdoba — Elo differential +196 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **EIB recent form** — LWLWW last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Córdoba recent form** — LWWWW last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 64% vs market price 2.10 at Betfair, edge 16.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 74% vs market price 1.71 at Dafabet, edge 15.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 60% vs market price 2.11 at 1xbet, edge 13.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **EIB in-form player** — José Corpas — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.18. [^fact-10]: **Córdoba in-form player** — Cristian Carracedo — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.76. [^fact-11]: **Córdoba key absence** — Adilson out (injury), 75 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .