# FC Andorra vs Ceuta > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 14:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1044) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** FC Andorra 0–2 Ceuta ## Model verdict - **FC Andorra win:** 55% - **Draw:** 24% - **Ceuta win:** 21% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and attacking rhythm set the tone for Sunday clash ## The stage La Liga 2 reaches a concluding weekend with kickoff scheduled for Sun 24 May 2026 at 14:15 UTC, placing this fixture squarely in the run-in context where margins tighten[^fact-1]. The match carries ordinary league consequences but the model frames it as a contest with a clear home tilt[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Form tables tell a familiar story: the hosts arrive with a superior recent sequence and balance of outcomes, posting LWLWW across their last 10 and converting that run into 1.90 points per game and 2.50 goals scored while conceding 1.00 on average per match[^fact-4]. Ceuta have been more conservative and fragile: LDWDD over 10, 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model's probabilistic view favours the hosts at 56% probability, with draws and away wins trailing at 24% and 20% respectively[^fact-2]. That assessment is buoyed by a sizeable Elo gap — an applied home advantage renders an effective differential of +204 Elo points in favour of the hosts[^fact-3]. Taken together, the numbers point to momentum and rating superiority for the home side[^fact-4][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Attacking rhythm will be watched closely. Josep Cerdà is flagged as the host’s in-form contributor, registering 2 goals and 1 assist across his last five appearances and carrying an average match rating of 7.05 in that window[^fact-7]. For Ceuta, Marcos Fernández has matched that striking output with 2 goals in his last five, albeit without assists and with a slightly lower average rating of 6.91[^fact-8]. Defensive availability matters here: the hosts will be missing Théo Le Normand due to injury; he has logged 224 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a body that has been part of that form sample[^fact-9]. Those personnel notes set the likely battlelines: a home side pushing an attack that has been effective recently against an away side whose scoring has been modest and whose defence has been more porous by the numbers[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared against the model across three market lines[^fact-10]. The clearest market discrepancy is on total goals: the model places Over 2.5 at 69% probability versus a market price of 1.52 at Unibet, implying an edge of 3.1 percentage points (model minus market), though the model flags that edge as low confidence[^fact-6]. That proposition ties directly to the hosts’ 2.50 goals-per-game figure and Ceuta’s 1.10 scoring rate — a pairing that has produced matches with open traits in the recent sample[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s primary match probability split remains Home 56% / Draw 24% / Away 20%, which is the central yardstick for comparing other market lines[^fact-2]. The analysis compared three markets in total against the model’s outputs, which is the basis for the quantified edges presented here[^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side: a 56% chance for a home win sits alongside a +204 Elo cushion and stronger recent attacking output, while Ceuta’s numbers suggest greater defensive vulnerability and less attacking potency[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. The most notable market divergence is on Over 2.5 goals, where the model’s 69% probability contrasts with the available 1.52 price, though that single edge carries low confidence and should be interpreted with caution[^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 14:15 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 56% / Draw 24% / Away 20% (source: model; confidence high, 32 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — AND vs Ceuta — Elo differential +204 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **AND recent form** — LWLWW last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Ceuta recent form** — LDWDD last 10: 2-5-3 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 69% vs market price 1.52 at Unibet, edge 3.1 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **AND in-form player** — Josep Cerdà — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-8]: **Ceuta in-form player** — Marcos Fernández — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.91. [^fact-9]: **AND key absence** — Théo Le Normand out (injury), 224 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .