# Mirandés vs Granada > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1048) **Status:** Live ## Model verdict - **Mirandés win:** 16% - **Draw:** 20% - **Granada win:** 64% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.22 | 1xbet | 56% | +11.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans to Granada; expect a tight, low-scoring finale ## The stage La Liga 2 closes this round with Mirandés hosting Granada on Sun 24 May 2026, 16:30 UTC. [^fact-1] The fixture sits as a standalone test for both sides with a neutral-sounding kick-off time and the usual late-season tension attached to league positioning. Mirandés and Granada arrive with distinct statistical footprints and a clear model preference for one outcome. [^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Mirandés arrive with a mixed late run: DLLWL over the last 10 matches, producing a record of 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses and averaging 1.30 points per game; their goals numbers read 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-4] Granada’s recent sequence is LLWLL across 10, logged as 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses with 1.20 points per game and offensive output of 1.30 goals while conceding 1.70 on average. [^fact-5] On the merit ladder, the model applies a post-home-adjustment Elo edge of +26 points in favour of the home side. [^fact-3] That Elo tilt and the marginally superior points-per-game for Mirandés suggest a small structural edge at the venue, even as formlines show both clubs trading inconsistency. [^fact-4][^fact-5] ## Personnel Mirandés’ most notable recent performer is Fernando Medrano: 2 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 6.77. [^fact-7] Mirandés will be without Alberto Marí through injury. [^fact-9] Granada’s in-form outlet is Pablo Sáenz, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five matches and an average rating of 6.91. [^fact-8] The visitors cope without Luca Zidane, listed out injured after 360 minutes in the recent run. [^fact-10] Those absences and returns shape expected attacking patterns: Mirandés lose a named forward, while Granada lack a specific squad figure who had meaningful minutes earlier in the sequence. [^fact-9][^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The model’s full match probabilities are skewed: Home 16% / Draw 20% / Away 64%, a clear lean toward an away victory. [^fact-2] Market comparison was performed across 3 markets. [^fact-11] The strongest standalone edge identified is on goals: the model puts the Under 2.5 goals market at 56% probability versus a market price of 2.22 at 1xbet, producing an 11.1 percentage-point edge. [^fact-6] Given both sides’ recent goals-scored and goals-conceded numbers — Mirandés roughly 1.60 for / 1.80 against, Granada 1.30 for / 1.70 against — the model’s tilt toward fewer total goals aligns with modest attacking returns and defensive leakage rather than high-scoring outputs. [^fact-4][^fact-5] ## Verdict The model leans strongly to an away win for Granada while simultaneously flagging a low-scoring game: the single-line summary is Away-favouring outcome at 64% alongside a measurable edge on Under 2.5 goals at 56% versus market odds priced at 2.22. [^fact-2][^fact-6] Personnel notes — Fernando Medrano’s recent scoring input for Mirandés and Pablo Sáenz’s contributions for Granada — matter within a tight expected score range, and the absence of Alberto Marí and Luca Zidane are the clearest roster knock-ons to monitor pre-kickoff. [^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 16% / Draw 20% / Away 64% (source: model; confidence high, 44 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — MIR vs GRA — Elo differential +26 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **MIR recent form** — DLLWL last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GRA recent form** — LLWLL last 10: 4-0-6 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 2.22 at 1xbet, edge 11.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **MIR in-form player** — Fernando Medrano — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.77. [^fact-8]: **GRA in-form player** — Pablo Sáenz — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.91. [^fact-9]: **MIR key absence** — Alberto Marí out (injury). [^fact-10]: **GRA key absence** — Luca Zidane out (injury), 360 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .