# Real Valladolid vs Deportivo La Coruña > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1049) **Status:** Live ## Model verdict - **Real Valladolid win:** 13% - **Draw:** 24% - **Deportivo La Coruña win:** 63% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Away | 1.69 | 1xbet | 72% | +12.9 pp | | totals | Under | 2.04 | 1xbet | 61% | +11.7 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away side arrives firmly favoured as form and model align ## The stage This fixture is scheduled for kickoff on Sun 24 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC in La Liga 2[^fact-1]. It carries the routine competitive weight of a league match at the season's business end; the model has produced a decisive probabilistic forecast for the contest[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum The contrasts in recent results and underlying numbers are stark. Real Valladolid arrive with a W-L-W-L-W mini-signature over the last ten outings, a 3-1-6 record tallying 1.00 points per game and averaging 0.90 goals for and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Deportivo La Coruña enter on a run of W-W-W-D-W, a 6-4-0 sequence delivering 2.20 points per game while scoring 1.60 and conceding 0.80 per match[^fact-5]. Those form lines are reflected in the model and in rating systems: the model gives the away side a 63% chance of victory against a 13% chance for the home win and a 24% probability of a draw, with a 39 percentage-point gap to the runner-up reflecting high confidence in that view[^fact-2]. The Elo-based picture is equally one-sided — an Elo differential of -126 in favour of the visitors after home advantage was applied, underlining their rating superiority[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Key contributors on each side are easy to single out from the recent sample. For Real Valladolid, Stipe Biuk has one goal and one assist across his last four appearances with an average match rating of 6.81[^fact-8]. For Deportivo La Coruña, Yeremay Hernández has been influential with one goal and three assists in his last five appearances and a higher average rating of 7.41[^fact-9]. Availability issues cut into both squads’ plans. Valladolid will be without Stanko Juric due to suspension after 692 minutes in the recent run — a notable absence from the middle of the pitch[^fact-10]. Deportivo will miss David Mella because of injury[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Comparing the model to market prices across three markets exposed clear edges[^fact-12]. The strongest single-market divergence is the Match Winner market: the model assigns an away victory probability of 72% while the market price at 1xbet implied a lower probability (odds 1.69), creating an edge of 12.9 percentage points in favour of the away win[^fact-6]. The model also favours Under 2.5 goals with a 61% probability versus the market price at 1xbet (odds 2.04), an 11.7 percentage-point edge for fewer than three goals[^fact-7]. Both value signals carry high model confidence as reported alongside those edges[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Those two signals sit naturally with the match data: visiting team form shows a strong defensive ledger (0.80 goals conceded per match) and the home side offers a relatively modest attacking return (0.90 goals per match), which aligns with the model’s lean toward a low-scoring road win[^fact-5][^fact-4]. The Elo gap and the model probabilities point in the same direction, increasing conviction where model-market edges appear[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model’s view is emphatic: a clear lean to the away side, with the market lagging the model most prominently on the Match Winner and Under 2.5 markets — both flagged as high-confidence edges[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Squad-level absences and recent individual form further accentuate the visitors’ advantage, making Deportivo the team the numbers favour markedly[^fact-10][^fact-11][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 13% / Draw 24% / Away 63% (source: model; confidence high, 39 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — REV vs COR — Elo differential -126 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **REV recent form** — LWLWL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **COR recent form** — WWWDW last 10: 6-4-0 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 72% vs market price 1.69 at 1xbet, edge 12.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 61% vs market price 2.04 at 1xbet, edge 11.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **REV in-form player** — Stipe Biuk — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.81. [^fact-9]: **COR in-form player** — Yeremay Hernández — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.41. [^fact-10]: **REV key absence** — Stanko Juric out (suspension), 692 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **COR key absence** — David Mella out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .