# Hammarby vs AIK > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1052) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Hammarby 1–2 AIK ## Model verdict - **Hammarby win:** 76% - **Draw:** 13% - **AIK win:** 11% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Hammarby overwhelming favourites as model flags clear gulf ## The stage This fixture kicks off on Sun 24 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC in Allsvenskan[^fact-1]. The scheduling places it firmly in the league calendar; the model treats it as a clear single-match opportunity rather than a marginal pick, reflected in a decisive probability split[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Hammarby arrive with a run described as LWWWD over their last 10, translating to 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats and an output of 2.00 points per game; their attacking and defensive returns read 2.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match in that span[^fact-4]. Those numbers coincide with an Elo edge of +298 points after home advantage is applied, a margin that in Elo terms represents a substantial gulf between the sides[^fact-3]. AIK’s recent string is markedly weaker: DLDLL across the last 10, recorded as 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, with 1.20 points per game and 1.30 goals scored against 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The contrast in form and the Elo differential together explain why the model assigns a high probability to a Hammarby victory[^fact-2]. The model’s confidence in that primary outcome is strong, with a 63 percentage-point gap to the runner-up projection[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Hammarby’s in-form focal point is Nahir Besara, who has 4 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.96 in that period[^fact-7]. His recent numbers underpin Hammarby’s elevated goals-per-game output[^fact-4]. The side will be without Hampus Skoglund through suspension; Skoglund has logged 867 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes one regular contributor from the rotation[^fact-9]. AIK’s principal contributor in the last five is Áron Csongvai, with 1 goal, 1 assist and an average rating of 7.41 across that sequence[^fact-8]. AIK must also cope without Martin Ellingsen due to injury, a personnel loss noted by the model when projecting this matchup[^fact-10]. The combination of those absences and the disparity in offensive and defensive form tilts the match-up toward Hammarby on paper[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value Three market lines were analysed against the model[^fact-11]. The clearest edge is on “No in Both Teams to Score”: the model assigns this outcome a 64% probability against a market price of 2.00 at 888Sport, producing an edge of 14.2 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. That finding aligns with Hammarby’s recent defensive solidity (0.80 goals conceded per match) paired with AIK’s modest attacking return (1.30 goals per match), a combination the model interprets as increasing the likelihood of a single-side scoring outcome[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Markets beyond that primary edge were compared but do not present the same level of disconnect between model and odds; the model’s single-outcome distributions explain why the home result dominates the probability share[^fact-11][^fact-2]. The magnitude of Hammarby’s Elo advantage and form numbers drive concentrated probability mass toward a home win while simultaneously compressing reasonable alternate outcomes into lower-probability bands[^fact-3][^fact-4]. ## Verdict The model leans heavily to Hammarby with Home 76% / Draw 13% / Away 11%, supported by a +298 Elo edge and a substantial recent-form advantage; the market discrepancy worth the clearest note is on No in Both Teams to Score, where the model projects 64% against a 2.00 market price[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 76% / Draw 13% / Away 11% (source: model; confidence high, 63 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HAM vs AIK — Elo differential +298 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HAM recent form** — LWWWD last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.40 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **AIK recent form** — DLDLL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 64% vs market price 2.00 at 888Sport, edge 14.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **HAM in-form player** — Nahir Besara — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.96. [^fact-8]: **AIK in-form player** — Áron Csongvai — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.41. [^fact-9]: **HAM key absence** — Hampus Skoglund out (suspension), 867 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **AIK key absence** — Martin Ellingsen out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .