# Bodø / Glimt vs Brann > Eliteserien · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 14:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1053) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Bodø / Glimt 3–1 Brann ## Model verdict - **Bodø / Glimt win:** 72% - **Draw:** 17% - **Brann win:** 11% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy home edge and goals expected as Høgh leads attack ## The stage This Eliteserien fixture kicks off Sun 24 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — a midweek eye on the table and momentum for both sides[^fact-1]. The model rates the home side strongly, putting a 72% chance on a win, a 17% chance on a draw and an 11% chance on an away upset; confidence in that verdict is described as high with a 55 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. The pre-match numbers set clear expectations before the ball is kicked[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum The home side arrive on a hot run: their last 10 matches produce a WWLWW sequence, a 7-1-2 record (W-D-L) and 2.20 points per game; they are scoring 2.80 goals and conceding 0.80 per match in that sample[^fact-4]. The visitors have a less consistent return: LWWWD across their last 10, a 4-1-5 record and 1.30 points per game, with 2.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo rating gap, already adjusted for home advantage, is substantial — the home side carry a +265-point edge on the visitors[^fact-3]. Those three data points together paint a picture of a home team both statistically superior on the board and in better recent form[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Offensively, the home side’s in-form striker Kasper Høgh has been the standout: five goals and three assists across his last four appearances, with an average match rating of 8.20 in that window[^fact-7]. The visitors’ dangerous outlet is K. Ingason, who has four goals and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.62 in that run[^fact-8]. On the availability front, the home side will be missing Odin Luras Bjortuft through injury; that player logged 900 minutes in the recent run and his absence is the clearest personnel hole for the hosts[^fact-9]. The visitors lose Mathias Dyngeland to injury, who accounted for 450 minutes in the recent run — the visitors’ most significant absentee listed here[^fact-10]. All named players and minute totals above are drawn from the supplied match facts[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Markets analysed against the model total three separate lines for this match[^fact-11]. The clearest statistical edge flagged is on Both Teams to Score — the model assigns a 74% probability to BTTS, while the market price shown at bet365 is 1.50, producing an edge of 7.4 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-6]. That signal is consistent with the home side’s 2.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match in recent form and the visitors’ 2.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match — numbers that together make a high-scoring game with both sides finding the net plausible on the supplied data[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. The primary outright line is strongly tilted toward the home side in the model, which assigns victory probability well above the draw and away outcomes[^fact-2]. Those three market comparisons form the model’s basis for spotting edges ahead of kick-off[^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side, driven by a +265 Elo gap, superior recent form and an obvious attacking red-hot striker in Kasper Høgh; the model’s Home 72% / Draw 17% / Away 11% split encapsulates that lean[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-7][^fact-2]. The standout market discrepancy is the BTTS line, where the model’s 74% probability outstrips the market’s pricing at 1.50, marking the clearest statistical edge ahead of kick-off[^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 14:00 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 72% / Draw 17% / Away 11% (source: model; confidence high, 55 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BOD vs SKB — Elo differential +265 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BOD recent form** — WWLWW last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 2.80 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SKB recent form** — LWWWD last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 74% vs market price 1.50 at bet365, edge 7.4 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **BOD in-form player** — Kasper Høgh — 5 goals, 3 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 8.20. [^fact-8]: **SKB in-form player** — K. Ingason — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.62. [^fact-9]: **BOD key absence** — Odin Luras Bjortuft out (injury), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **SKB key absence** — Mathias Dyngeland out (injury), 450 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .