# Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers > Premier League · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1056) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Burnley 1–1 Wolverhampton Wanderers ## Model verdict - **Burnley win:** 31% - **Draw:** 38% - **Wolverhampton Wanderers win:** 31% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Stalemate likely as form and model both favour low-scoring draw ## The stage Sun 24 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC is the scheduled kickoff for this Premier League fixture — a late-season meeting that carries whatever competitive weight remains in the table for both clubs in the division[^fact-1]. No venue detail is supplied in the available facts, so focus sits on timing and competition alone[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent runs point toward defensive fragility more than attacking bite on either side. Burnley have produced LDLLL over their last 10 matches, a sequence that amounts to 0-2-8 (W-D-L), yielding 0.20 points per game and 0.80 goals scored while conceding 2.20 per match[^fact-4]. Wolverhampton Wanderers' last 10 read DLDLL, recorded as 2-3-5 (W-D-L), with 0.90 points per game and 0.90 goals scored against 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model applies a material Elo edge to Burnley — an adjusted differential of +56 points in their favour after home advantage is considered[^fact-3] — yet that edge does not translate into a heavy probability skew because the model still calls a draw as the most likely outcome at 38%[^fact-2]. The model assigns 31% to a home win and 31% to an away win, leaving the draw as the single largest outcome probability despite the Elo cushion[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The confidence note on the model shows a mid-level certainty with a 7 percentage-point gap to the runner-up, indicating the projection is meaningful but not decisive[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Burnley’s most notable in-form option listed is Jaidon Anthony, with 1 goal and 1 assist across his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.67 in that span[^fact-7]. For Wolves, Santiago Bueno is flagged as the in-form contributor with 1 goal and an average rating of 6.81 over his last five appearances[^fact-8]. Absences are clear-cut and asymmetric. Burnley will be without Mike Tresor due to injury; Tresor has 18 minutes in the recent run referenced by the facts[^fact-9]. Wolves are missing goalkeeper José Sá through injury, a loss quantified as 540 minutes in the recent run referenced[^fact-10]. Those minute counts are the only provided context for their absences and should be read as the supplied measure of recent involvement rather than an attempt to extrapolate how the team will reshuffle[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared between the model and market lines in the supplied analysis[^fact-11]. The clearest statistical edge flagged is on the Under 2.5 goals market: the model puts Under 2.5 at 53% versus a market price that implies a lower probability at 2.25 on 1xbet, producing an edge of 8.4 percentage points and a high confidence level attached to that pick[^fact-6]. That Under 2.5 projection coheres with the raw attacking output numbers supplied: Burnley averaging 0.80 goals and Wolves averaging 0.90 goals across their recent 10-match samples, and both sides conceding at least 1.90 per match in those windows — figures that together suggest matches between them are more likely to be low-scoring and tense than free-scoring affairs[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s draw-first probability and the Under 2.5 edge are consistent signals rather than conflicting ones: a low expected total raises the plausibility of a deadlocked result[^fact-2][^fact-6]. Markets analysed are explicitly three in number in the supplied facts; the Under 2.5 is presented as the top value outcome among those comparisons[^fact-11][^fact-6]. No other market-level edges are supplied in the facts available, so the market comparison beyond that single high-confidence edge cannot be asserted here[^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans to a draw as the single likeliest outcome at 38%, with home and away wins split at 31% apiece, and an Elo tilt of +56 for Burnley that moderates but does not overturn the draw probability[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Combining form, low scoring rates and the model-to-market comparison produces a clear quantitative theme: low-scoring, tight game with the strongest supplied market edge on Under 2.5 goals (model 53% vs market 2.25 on 1xbet, edge 8.4 pp, high confidence)[^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 31% / Draw 38% / Away 31% (source: model; confidence mid, 7 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BUR vs WOL — Elo differential +56 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BUR recent form** — LDLLL last 10: 0-2-8 (W-D-L), 0.20 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 2.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **WOL recent form** — DLDLL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 53% vs market price 2.25 at 1xbet, edge 8.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **BUR in-form player** — Jaidon Anthony — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.67. [^fact-8]: **WOL in-form player** — Santiago Bueno — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.81. [^fact-9]: **BUR key absence** — Mike Tresor out (injury), 18 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **WOL key absence** — José Sá  out (injury), 540 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .