# Crystal Palace vs Arsenal > Premier League · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1057) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Crystal Palace 1–2 Arsenal ## Model verdict - **Crystal Palace win:** 28% - **Draw:** 38% - **Arsenal win:** 34% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Subtle margins favour Arsenal but Palace’s defence can frustrate ## The stage Crystal Palace host Arsenal in a late-May Premier League fixture kicking off on Sun 24 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The match carries standard league consequence as part of the domestic season; the model assigns a 28% chance to the home side, 38% to a draw and 34% to the away side — a tight spread and a low-confidence verdict, with only a 4 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form points to two different trajectories. Palace have produced DLDLL across their last ten results, a 2-4-4 record worth 1.00 point per game, scoring 1.10 goals and conceding 1.70 per match in that window[^fact-4]. Arsenal arrive in markedly better touch with WWWWL in their last ten, recorded as 6-0-4 and yielding 1.80 points per game, with 1.30 goals scored and just 0.90 conceded on average[^fact-5]. The Elo picture amplifies that split: applied with home advantage, Arsenal hold an 88-point edge on that scale[^fact-3]. Those numbers frame Arsenal as the clearer form side, but the model’s outcome probabilities still leave the draw fraction as the single largest single result[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Two in-form attacking contributors headline the available individual data. Crystal Palace’s Daniel Muñoz has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist across his last five appearances, carrying an average match rating of 7.03 in that run[^fact-8]. Arsenal’s attacking outlet Bukayo Saka has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last four outings, with an average rating of 7.30[^fact-9]. Availability notes matter: Palace will be without Evann Guessand through injury, who logged 198 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. Arsenal are missing Kai Havertz to injury as well, with Havertz having played 542 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-11]. Those absences remove known minutes and attacking options from either side and help explain a cautious model that still leaves room for a draw[^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared across three market lines when the model’s edges were calculated[^fact-12]. Two clear inefficiencies emerge against Unibet pricing. First, the model marks “No” on Both Teams to Score at 61% probability versus a market price of 2.32, producing an edge of 17.7 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model prefers the Under side of Goals O/U 2.5 at 54% against a market price of 2.33, an 11.4 percentage-point edge also with high confidence[^fact-7]. Both value picks point to a low-scoring game profile: Palace’s limited scoring returns (1.10 goals per match recently) and Arsenal’s relatively stingy concession rate (0.90 conceded per match recently) support that convergence in the numbers[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s overall match probabilities, however, still keep the draw slice as the largest single outcome, underscoring caution in projecting a decisive result[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The quantitative read tilts towards Arsenal as the superior side on form and Elo, but the model’s low-confidence spread and the statistical profile of both teams combine to favour a cagey, low-scoring affair — the model therefore identifies No on Both Teams to Score and Under 2.5 goals as its clearest value edges against current market pricing[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 28% / Draw 38% / Away 34% (source: model; confidence low, 4 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CRY vs ARS — Elo differential -88 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CRY recent form** — DLDLL last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ARS recent form** — WWWWL last 10: 6-0-4 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 61% vs market price 2.32 at Unibet, edge 17.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.33 at Unibet, edge 11.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **CRY in-form player** — Daniel Muñoz — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.03. [^fact-9]: **ARS in-form player** — Bukayo Saka — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.30. [^fact-10]: **CRY key absence** — Evann Guessand out (injury), 198 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **ARS key absence** — Kai Havertz out (injury), 542 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .