# Fulham vs Newcastle United > Premier League · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1058) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Fulham 2–0 Newcastle United ## Model verdict - **Fulham win:** 43% - **Draw:** 30% - **Newcastle United win:** 28% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model prefers the home side by a hair; watch Osula’s finish ## The stage This is a late-May Premier League fixture kicking off Sun 24 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC, a match that sits as the season’s finishing block for both sides[^fact-1]. No venue claim will be made beyond the schedule; the timing and competition frame what is on offer for both squads[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Fulham’s recent ten-match sequence reads DLLWD, recorded as 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats, yielding 0.90 points per game and an average of 0.50 goals scored against 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Newcastle’s ten-game slate is WDWLL — 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats — producing 1.30 points per game with 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On Elo there is a modest home-edge: the applied ranking differential favours the hosts by +26 points[^fact-3]. The model’s standalone probabilities mirror a tight contest: Home 42% / Draw 29% / Away 28% — a clear top pick but only a 13 percentage-point gap to the runner-up, underlining a competitive outlook[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Fulham’s most noticeable in-form contributor in the recent window is Antonee Robinson: 1 goal, 0 assists in his last five appearances, with an average match rating of 6.95[^fact-6]. The same timeframe for Newcastle highlights William Osula, who has 4 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.11 — a scoring spike that shifts attacking responsibility toward him[^fact-7]. On absences, Fulham will be missing Alex Iwobi through injury; he has featured for 495 minutes in the cited recent run and his absence removes a significant chunk of recent minutes for the hosts[^fact-8]. Newcastle’s key absence is Sven Botman, also out injured after logging 775 minutes in the recent sample — the visitors therefore lose a player who accounted for a large slice of their defensive minutes in that period[^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model returns Home 42% / Draw 29% / Away 28% as its probabilities, which is the starting point for spotting discrepancies with market prices[^fact-2]. Three markets were analysed against the model as part of this comparison[^fact-10]. The model’s clearest edge is the outright home probability at 42%, where the computed favorite sits comfortably above the away number and the draw but without an overwhelming gulf to either alternative[^fact-2]. The +26 Elo advantage applied to the hosts reinforces that home-based projection and explains much of the model weight toward the home side[^fact-3]. A second thematic edge is the expectation of a low-scoring, tight contest: Fulham’s 0.50 goals for and 1.00 conceded per match across the recent sample contrasts with Newcastle’s 1.40 goals for and 1.40 conceded per match, suggesting the visitors supply more attacking variance while the hosts are leaner in scoring terms[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s mid confidence (a 13-percentage-point gap to the runner-up) signals that markets pricing draws or narrow-scoreline outcomes deserve attention since margin for error is small[^fact-2]. The personnel picture modifies those market-vs-model priors. Newcastle’s recent scoring burst from William Osula — 4 goals in five — elevates the probability of an away threat converting chances even if the aggregate away probability is slightly lower[^fact-7]. Conversely, Fulham’s loss of Alex Iwobi and the fact that Antonee Robinson is the in-form figure for the hosts (1 goal in five, 6.95 average rating) reduces the depth of creative options available to the home side and tightens the model’s outcome distribution[^fact-8][^fact-6]. The visitors’ defensive absence of Sven Botman, having played 775 recent minutes, also injects uncertainty that tempers the away price despite Osula’s form[^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side at 42% but the margin is narrow; an applied +26 Elo edge and Fulham’s cleaner defensive profile underpin that lean, while Newcastle’s recent finishing from William Osula and the loss of central defensive minutes for the visitors keep the tie finely balanced and the draw a live outcome[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 42% / Draw 29% / Away 28% (source: model; confidence mid, 13 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — FUL vs NEW — Elo differential +26 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **FUL recent form** — DLLWD last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NEW recent form** — WDWLL last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **FUL in-form player** — Antonee Robinson — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.95. [^fact-7]: **NEW in-form player** — William Osula — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.11. [^fact-8]: **FUL key absence** — Alex Iwobi out (injury), 495 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **NEW key absence** — Sven Botman out (injury), 775 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .