# Liverpool vs Brentford > Premier League · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1059) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Liverpool 1–1 Brentford ## Model verdict - **Liverpool win:** 60% - **Draw:** 19% - **Brentford win:** 21% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home advantage and Szoboszlai's form tilt the balance ## The stage This fixture is a Premier League match scheduled for kickoff on Sun 24 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC[^fact-1]. No neutral-venue complications are recorded in the supplied facts, so the model’s assessment already includes the home advantage applied to the Elo comparison[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Liverpool arrive with a recent run described as LDLWW over the last 10 games — a 4-2-4 (W-D-L) split producing 1.40 points per game, 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Brentford’s last 10 read DLWLD — a 2-6-2 (W-D-L) sequence delivering 1.20 points per game, with 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The statistical engine gives Liverpool a clear edge: a 61% chance of a home win, versus 17% for a draw and 21% for Brentford[^fact-2]. That sits alongside a substantive Elo differential of +128 in Liverpool’s favour after home adjustment, signalling a meaningful quality gap between the sides in the model’s terms[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Liverpool’s attacking rhythm has been propelled by Dominik Szoboszlai, who has 1 goal and 4 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.30 in that run[^fact-6]. For Brentford, Dango Ouattara has been the most notable in-form player with 2 goals and an average rating of 7.17 across his last five outings[^fact-7]. Availability notes from the supplied facts show substantive absences: Florian Wirtz is unavailable for Liverpool with an injury after 599 minutes in the recent run[^fact-8], and Brentford are without Michael Kayode, injured after 900 minutes in his recent sequence[^fact-9]. Those are the heaviest listed personnel losses on each side in the provided dataset[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model was pitted against three market lines in its calibration and comparison exercise[^fact-10]. Its primary macro signals are the 61% home-win probability and the +128 Elo edge, which combine to mark Liverpool as the dominant side on expected-outcome metrics[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Given Brentford’s lower points-per-game profile and narrower scoring margin across the recent sample, the model’s tilt toward the home side is consistent across its checks[^fact-5][^fact-4]. The confidence gap reported alongside the model verdict — a 40 percentage-point margin to the runner-up probability — underscores that the model’s preference for a home victory is not marginal within its own output[^fact-2]. Those three market comparisons were used to surface where trading lines diverge from the model, and they underpin the conclusion that the clearest analytical edge sits on the home side when model probabilities are contrasted with market quotes[^fact-10][^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward a Liverpool win, driven by a +128 Elo edge and a 61% home-win probability, with Szoboszlai’s recent direct goal involvements reinforcing the attacking case and the two listed injuries removing key minutes from both squads[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 61% / Draw 17% / Away 21% (source: model; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LIV vs BRE — Elo differential +128 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LIV recent form** — LDLWW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BRE recent form** — DLWLD last 10: 2-6-2 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **LIV in-form player** — Dominik Szoboszlai — 1 goals, 4 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.30. [^fact-7]: **BRE in-form player** — Dango Ouattara — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.17. [^fact-8]: **LIV key absence** — Florian Wirtz out (injury), 599 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **BRE key absence** — Michael Kayode out (injury), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .