# Nottingham Forest vs AFC Bournemouth > Premier League · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1061) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Nottingham Forest 1–1 AFC Bournemouth ## Model verdict - **Nottingham Forest win:** 15% - **Draw:** 34% - **AFC Bournemouth win:** 51% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans Bournemouth as Forest seek late-season rescue ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sun 24 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC in a Premier League fixture[^fact-1]. This match carries the usual end-of-season intensity that can skew margins and reward teams in better short-term rhythm; the model places a clear probability split across outcomes that frames expectations for the day[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences give Bournemouth the slight edge in on-pitch momentum. Nottingham Forest’s last-10 string reads LDWWW with a 4-4-2 record, returning 1.60 points per game while averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match in that span[^fact-4]. Bournemouth’s sequence is DWWDW with an effective 4-6-0 split, delivering 1.80 points per game and an average of 1.40 goals scored while conceding 0.80 per match over their recent run[^fact-5]. The Elo differential after applying home advantage shows Forest ahead by 17 points on that scale[^fact-3], but the model’s outcome probabilities still favour the away side — Home 14% / Draw 23% / Away 63% — a 40-percentage-point gap to the runner-up that signals strong model confidence[^fact-2]. In short: Forest possess a marginal Elo edge with home weighting applied[^fact-3], but Bournemouth’s recent form and the model’s aggregated view give the travelling side a pronounced statistical lead[^fact-2][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Nottingham Forest’s short-term attacking form leans heavily on Morgan Gibbs-White, who has produced 5 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 appearances and carries an average rating of 7.89 across those games[^fact-7]. That level of output has been central to Forest’s 2.20 goals-per-match figure in the recent sample[^fact-4]. Bournemouth’s go-to contributor in the same window is Rayan, who arrives with 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.11[^fact-8]. Availability bites both sides: Forest will be without Ola Aina through injury after he contributed 621 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9], while Bournemouth are missing Álex Jiménez through suspension after 642 minutes played in the same period[^fact-10]. Those absences matter because they remove players who logged significant minutes in the teams’ recent patterns, forcing each side to reshuffle roles the model has observed in its inputs[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Across three markets analysed against the model, the clearest edge shows up on the Under 2.5 goals market[^fact-11]. The model rates Under 2.5 at 55% probability versus the market price of 2.50 at Pinnacle, producing an edge of 14.5 percentage points and high confidence in that view[^fact-6]. That projection aligns with both teams’ defensive outputs in the recent samples: Forest concede 1.10 goals per match and Bournemouth 0.80 per match in the last-10 windows, a combination that can compress scoring expectations even when both teams carry attacking threats[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s overall match probabilities — 14% home, 23% draw, 63% away — show a strong lean to the away side that exceeds the next-best outcome by 40 percentage points, indicating the model’s aggregated inputs (form, player availability, Elo) cohere around Bournemouth as the likelier winner[^fact-2]. Those full-match probabilities and the Under 2.5 edge are the two clearest, quantified divergences between model and market after the three markets analysed[^fact-2][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward an away tilt: Bournemouth are the likeliest result at 63% against a 14% Home probability, supported by recent form and a strong confidence gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. The single clearest market inefficiency identified by the model is Under 2.5 goals — model 55% vs Pinnacle 2.50 with a 14.5-point edge and high confidence[^fact-6]. The match therefore reads as a contest in which Bournemouth carry the momentum and the game structure favours fewer clear-cut scoring bursts, especially with both sides coping with notable minutes-laden absences[^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 14% / Draw 23% / Away 63% (source: model; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NFO vs BOU — Elo differential +17 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NFO recent form** — LDWWW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BOU recent form** — DWWDW last 10: 4-6-0 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 55% vs market price 2.50 at Pinnacle, edge 14.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **NFO in-form player** — Morgan Gibbs-White — 5 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.89. [^fact-8]: **BOU in-form player** — Rayan — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.11. [^fact-9]: **NFO key absence** — Ola Aina  out (injury), 621 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **BOU key absence** — Álex Jiménez out (suspension), 642 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .