# Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton > Premier League · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1063) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Tottenham Hotspur 1–0 Everton ## Model verdict - **Tottenham Hotspur win:** 21% - **Draw:** 26% - **Everton win:** 53% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model Strongly Backs Away Side Despite Home Elo Slight Edge ## The stage This fixture kicks off on Sun 24 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC in the Premier League, a late-season meeting that carries the usual mix of points and positioning pressures for both clubs[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Tottenham Hotspur have produced an LDWWD sequence in their last 10 and average 0.90 points per game over that run, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.60 per match[^fact-4]. Everton arrive with an LDDLL sequence in their last 10 and a slightly higher 1.20 points per game from that stretch, averaging 1.80 goals for and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo differential, already adjusted for home advantage, gives Tottenham a small edge of minus eight points — a marginal gap on the scale used by the model[^fact-3]. Despite that modest Elo tilt, the probabilistic model assigns the away side the clear lead: 53% for the away win, 26% for a draw and 21% for the home result, with the model expressing high confidence and a 27 percentage point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Tottenham's attacking shape will be affected by the absence of Dominic Solanke, who has been out and accounted for 564 minutes in the recent run[^fact-8]. Richarlison is the Spurs in-form outlet, with two goals and one assist across his last four appearances and an average rating of 6.91 in that period[^fact-6]. Everton's defensive leadership and set-piece threat through James Tarkowski has been notable: one goal and two assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.17[^fact-7]. Everton will also miss Beto, who has been absent for 661 minutes in the recent run and therefore removes one of their attacking rotation options[^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model's probability split — 53% away / 26% draw / 21% home — is the central market signal to test against available prices and was compared across three markets in the analysis[^fact-2][^fact-10]. That 53% away probability is the standout number: it represents the model's strongest single-outcome conviction and is accompanied by high internal confidence, which is why the model's edge is focused on the away result rather than marginal market nudges[^fact-2]. The model also flags the draw line at 26% and the home at 21% as materially lower-probability outcomes, creating asymmetric expected-value prospects when market prices diverge from those shares; all comparative work referenced three separate market feeds to identify where those divergences exist[^fact-10]. The Elo differential of minus eight points for Tottenham after home advantage is applied suggests a small skill tilt in the home side's favour, but it is insufficient to overturn the model's larger probabilistic lean toward the away outcome[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Personnel nuances reinforce the model's stance: both teams are missing a forward who contributed significant minutes in recent runs — Tottenham's Dominic Solanke and Everton's Beto — and the availability shifts compress attacking outputs on both sides[^fact-8][^fact-9]. Meanwhile, Everton's higher recent goals figure (1.80) versus Tottenham's 1.00 and Tarkowski's form in both defensive and set-piece phases are included in the model's input mix and help explain the away bias[^fact-5][^fact-7][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the away side with a 53% probability, a position reached despite Tottenham's modest Elo advantage and reflecting recent form, goals data and personnel availability; the confidence gap to the next outcome is 27 percentage points, which is the principal quantitative justification for this lean[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Premier League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 21% / Draw 26% / Away 53% (source: model; confidence high, 27 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — TOT vs EVE — Elo differential -8 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **TOT recent form** — LDWWD last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **EVE recent form** — LDDLL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **TOT in-form player** — Richarlison — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.91. [^fact-7]: **EVE in-form player** — James Tarkowski — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.17. [^fact-8]: **TOT key absence** — Dominic Solanke out (injury), 564 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **EVE key absence** — Beto out (injury), 661 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .