# Start vs Vålerenga > Eliteserien · Kickoff Mon 25 May 2026, 12:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1069) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Start 2–0 Vålerenga ## Model verdict - **Start win:** 25% - **Draw:** 20% - **Vålerenga win:** 55% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Vålerenga favoured as Start struggle for goals again ## The stage Start host Vålerenga in an Eliteserien fixture kicking off Mon 25 May 2026 at 12:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The fixture lists Start as the home side and Vålerenga as the visitors[^fact-1]. This match sits in a league context where the model already gives a clear probability split in favour of the away side: Home 25% / Draw 20% / Away 55%[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form points to a clash between a team labouring for results and a side eking out marginally better returns. Start arrive on a run summarised as LLDLL over the last 10 matches (0-4-6 W-D-L), producing 0.40 points per game and averaging 1.00 goals scored while conceding 2.60 per match[^fact-4]. Vålerenga’s ten-match return reads WLDLL (3-2-5 W-D-L), worth 1.10 points per game, with 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded on average[^fact-5]. The model’s Elo framework, with home advantage applied, gives Vålerenga a clear edge of +35 Elo points in this matchup[^fact-3]. That combination of superior recent output and an Elo cushion explains why the model’s confidence gap to the runner-up is wide, reflected in the 30 percentage-point separation noted by the model[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Start’s notable in-form contributor over the last five appearances is T. Strannegård, who has 1 goal and 2 assists and an average rating of 6.49 in that span[^fact-8]. The most conspicuous absence for Start is A. Ujkani, who is out injured after a recent run of 77 minutes on the field[^fact-10]. Vålerenga’s short-term attacking spark comes from Lucas Haren, who has 2 goals and no assists with an average rating of 6.93 over his last five outings[^fact-9]. The visitors will also be missing Omar Bully Drammeh through injury[^fact-11]. Those personnel notes frame a match where both sides lose contributors but Vålerenga retain the slightly better recent attacking form and rating profile[^fact-5][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value Markets analysed: 3 market(s) compared against the model[^fact-12]. The model spots two clear structural edges versus the public prices. First, an Under 2.5 goals selection is modelled at 70% probability versus a Pinnacle market price of 2.40, leaving an edge of 28.7 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model favours No on Both Teams to Score at 62% against a Betfair price of 2.55, an edge of 22.4 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Those two lines are consistent with the raw attacking and defensive averages: Start’s low scoring (1.00 goals per match) and high concession rate (2.60 conceded) combined with Vålerenga’s modest scoring rate (1.10 goals per match) and 1.90 conceded imply fewer high-scoring exchanges than public pricing appears to assume[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the away side, giving Vålerenga a 55% win probability against Start’s 25% and the draw at 20%[^fact-2], a stance reinforced by a +35 Elo advantage for the visitors with home advantage applied[^fact-3]. The most actionable model signals are for low-scoring outcomes: Under 2.5 goals and No on Both Teams to Score, where the model identifies sizeable edges versus market prices[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 25 May 2026, 12:30 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 25% / Draw 20% / Away 55% (source: model; confidence high, 30 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Start vs Vålerenga — Elo differential +35 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Start recent form** — LLDLL last 10: 0-4-6 (W-D-L), 0.40 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 2.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Vålerenga recent form** — WLDLL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 70% vs market price 2.40 at Pinnacle, edge 28.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 62% vs market price 2.55 at Betfair, edge 22.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Start in-form player** — T. Strannegård — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.49. [^fact-9]: **Vålerenga in-form player** — Lucas Haren — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.93. [^fact-10]: **Start key absence** — A. Ujkani out (injury), 77 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Vålerenga key absence** — Omar Bully Drammeh out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .