# KFUM vs Rosenborg > Eliteserien · Kickoff Mon 25 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1072) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** KFUM 2–0 Rosenborg ## Model verdict - **KFUM win:** 57% - **Draw:** 32% - **Rosenborg win:** 11% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and low-scoring profile shape matchday outlook ## The stage KFUM and Rosenborg meet in an Eliteserien fixture kicking off Mon 25 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The model places a clear lean toward the hosts, listing a home win at 57%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 11%[^fact-2]. The competitive context is therefore tilted toward a single-home advantage rather than a toss-up[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent form points to contrasting stability. KFUM arrive with a 10-match sequence recorded as LLDWL — two wins, two draws, six losses — delivering 0.80 points per game, scoring on average 1.00 goal and conceding 1.90 per match[^fact-4]. Rosenborg’s 10-match run reads LWLDD — three wins, two draws, five losses — at 1.10 points per game, with 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded on average[^fact-5]. Elo, after applying home advantage, gives KFUM an +81 point edge over Rosenborg, which supports the model’s heavier home probability rather than suggesting an evenly poised contest[^fact-3]. The raw form numbers favour Rosenborg for slightly higher offensive efficiency and points per game[^fact-5], but the Elo and the model favour the hosts overall[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel KFUM’s most notable recent contributor is Magnus Wolff Eikrem, who has one goal and one assist across his last five appearances and an average match rating of 6.97 in that span[^fact-8]. Rosenborg’s in-form figure listed by the model is Amin Chiakha, with two goals and no assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.06[^fact-9]. Both sides will be without a key player who has logged significant minutes in the recent run: KFUM are missing S. Sjøkvist through suspension after 527 minutes in this period[^fact-10], while Rosenborg will be without Ole Selnæs through injury after 514 minutes in the same recent window[^fact-11]. Those absences remove two players who were regular contributors to their teams’ minutes totals, forcing rotation and tactical adjustments on both sides[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model finds two clear market inefficiencies compared to public prices. The strongest edge is on the match finishing under 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 69% probability versus a market price of 2.12 at Sbo, an edge of 22.2 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Complementing that, the model rates a "No" on Both Teams to Score at 61% versus a market price of 2.30 at Betfair, an edge of 17.8 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Those two selections are coherent with the teams’ recent goal rates: KFUM average 1.00 scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4], Rosenborg average 1.30 scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5], and the model’s low total-goal expectation aligns with the calculated likelihoods above[^fact-6][^fact-7]. The value scan compared three markets against the model’s probabilities in this exercise[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side with a 57% match-win probability for KFUM, supported by an +81 Elo edge after home advantage and strong model confidence versus the market; the clearest practical insight is a low-scoring match profile, with high-confidence value flagged on Under 2.5 goals (model 69%) and Both Teams not to score (model 61%)[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 25 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 57% / Draw 31% / Away 11% (source: model; confidence high, 26 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — KFUM vs Rosenborg — Elo differential +81 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **KFUM recent form** — LLDWL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Rosenborg recent form** — LWLDD last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 69% vs market price 2.12 at Sbo, edge 22.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 61% vs market price 2.30 at Betfair, edge 17.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **KFUM in-form player** — Magnus Wolff Eikrem — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.97. [^fact-9]: **Rosenborg in-form player** — Amin Chiakha — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.06. [^fact-10]: **KFUM key absence** — S. Sjøkvist out (suspension), 527 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Rosenborg key absence** — Ole Selnæs out (injury), 514 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .