# HamKam vs Lillestrøm > Eliteserien · Kickoff Mon 25 May 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1073) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** HamKam 2–0 Lillestrøm ## Model verdict - **HamKam win:** 57% - **Draw:** 33% - **Lillestrøm win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and low goals profile shape the tight affair ## The stage Eliteserien resumes with a midweek kick when HamKam host Lillestrøm, kickoff Mon 25 May 2026, 15:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The fixture carries immediate league significance as both sides seek momentum in the run of fixtures covered by recent form metrics[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Form & momentum HamKam arrive on a run that reads LWDWW over the last 10 matches, a 5-1-4 record producing 1.60 points per game, 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Lillestrøm's last 10 is LWLWL, a 6-1-3 sequence delivering 1.90 points per game, 1.70 goals scored and a far stingier 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The ratings picture from Elo gives HamKam a 113-point edge once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Those numbers set up a clash between HamKam's home boost and Lillestrøm's superior defensive return over the recent sample[^fact-3][^fact-5]. The model splits probability emphatically in HamKam's favour — Home 57%, Draw 33%, Away 10% — and records a high-confidence 24 percentage-point gap to the runner-up projection[^fact-2]. That concordance between Elo and the model suggests the home side carries a clear probabilistic edge heading into the match[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel HamKam's attacking spark in recent weeks has been M. Alassane Niang, who has three goals and no assists in his last five appearances while averaging a 7.25 rating[^fact-7]. Lillestrøm's creative touch has come through Felix Vá, who has zero goals but three assists in his last five and an average rating of 7.11[^fact-8]. The absence most likely to tilt game-plan and rotations is Eric Kitolano missing through injury after 402 minutes in the recent run, a direct loss to Lillestrøm's available minutes and attacking continuity[^fact-9]. Those individual data points underline why both sides may lean on the hot performers named above to manufacture chances in a game where defensive balance looks meaningful[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags the Under 2.5 goals market as the top value pick: a 52% model probability versus a market price of 2.28 at Unibet, yielding an 8.0 percentage-point edge and high confidence[^fact-6]. That projection coheres with Lillestrøm's low conceded rate of 0.90 goals per match in the recent sample and HamKam's modest conceded rate of 1.70 per match, which together point to a lower-scoring profile[^fact-5][^fact-4]. Market comparison scope is limited but focused: three markets were analysed against the model to surface edges[^fact-10]. The consensus model lean toward a home result and the quant read on goal expectation both point in the same direction — a single clear market edge emerges from the analysed sets, namely the under-2.5 line[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to HamKam at home (57% vs 10% away) with a clear Elo-derived home edge of +113 points, while defensive metrics and the model's goal-probability work together to favour a quieter game under 2.5 goals[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 25 May 2026, 15:00 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 57% / Draw 33% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 24 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HamKam vs Lillestrøm — Elo differential +113 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HamKam recent form** — LWDWW last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Lillestrøm recent form** — LWLWL last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 52% vs market price 2.28 at Unibet, edge 8.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **HamKam in-form player** — M. Alassane Niang — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.25. [^fact-8]: **Lillestrøm in-form player** — Felix Vá — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.11. [^fact-9]: **Lillestrøm key absence** — Eric Kitolano out (injury), 402 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .