# IFK Göteborg vs Mjällby > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Mon 25 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1075) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** IFK Göteborg 1–1 Mjällby ## Model verdict - **IFK Göteborg win:** 15% - **Draw:** 36% - **Mjällby win:** 49% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away side favoured as form, Elo and markets point to a low-scoring tie ## The stage Kickoff is set for Mon 25 May 2026, 17:00 UTC in Allsvenskan, with the fixture framed as a midweek opportunity for both sides to change the trajectory of their seasons[^fact-1]. The model gives a clear lean: home 15%, draw 36%, away 49%—an away-sided distribution with mid confidence and a 13 percentage-point gap to the runner‑up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent records diverge sharply. IFK Göteborg have managed two wins, four draws and four losses in their last 10 matches, averaging 1.00 points per game while scoring 0.90 and conceding 1.50 per match[^fact-4]. Mjällby arrive in markedly better rhythm: five wins, two draws and three losses in 10, with 1.70 points per game, 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s away lean is reinforced by an Elo differential that shows Göteborg 135 points behind Mjällby even after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. That Elo gap is consistent with the underlying form metrics: Göteborg’s low scoring rate and higher goals conceded contrast with Mjällby’s superior points return and cleaner defensive numbers[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel On the players front, Göteborg’s most influential recent performer is David Kruse, who has contributed one goal and one assist in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 7.24 across that span[^fact-7]. Mjällby’s attacking edge has been shouldered by Jacob Bergström, who has three goals in his last five outings with a 7.23 average rating[^fact-8]. Availability imbalances matter: Göteborg will be without Arbnor Mucolli through injury, removing a part of their attacking inventory[^fact-9]. Mjällby are missing Viktor Gustafson through suspension; Gustafson had accumulated 581 minutes in the recent run before the suspension, indicating his absence removes a regular contributor[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model compared three markets against public pricing in this game[^fact-11] and identifies its clearest edge on match events rather than the 1X2 line. The standout value is a market blank: “No” on Both Teams to Score, which the model prices at 61% versus a Betfair market price of 2.05—an implied probability gap equivalent to a 12.4 percentage‑point edge and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. That finding aligns with the underlying profiles: Göteborg’s 0.90 goals scored per match and higher goals conceded rate might ordinarily suggest a porous affair, but Mjällby’s 1.00 goals conceded rate combined with Göteborg’s scoring struggles compress the probability of both sides finding the net[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s 49% probability for the away result sits against a less favourable public price (model over market comparison implied by the markets analysed), and the draw probability at 36% is the model’s second-most likely single outcome[^fact-2][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The statistical case is straightforward: form, Elo and the model’s probabilities coalesce around an away‑leaning outcome while simultaneously elevating the probability of a low-scoring game—reflected in a strong model edge on No for Both Teams to Score[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6]. Personnel swings cut both ways: Göteborg lose Arbnor Mucolli to injury, while Mjällby are without Viktor Gustafson through suspension after 581 minutes in the recent run, changes that the model has already incorporated into its market comparisons[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. The clearest, highest‑confidence discrepancy between market and model is the non‑both‑teams to score angle, which sits apart from the 1X2 probabilities and merits primal attention given the inputs above[^fact-6][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 25 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 15% / Draw 36% / Away 49% (source: model; confidence mid, 13 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — GOT vs Mjällby — Elo differential -135 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **GOT recent form** — LLDDD last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Mjällby recent form** — DLWWW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 61% vs market price 2.05 at Betfair, edge 12.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **GOT in-form player** — David Kruse — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.24. [^fact-8]: **Mjällby in-form player** — Jacob Bergström — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.23. [^fact-9]: **GOT key absence** — Arbnor Mucolli out (injury). [^fact-10]: **Mjällby key absence** — Viktor Gustafson out (suspension), 581 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .