# Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad > Eliteserien · Kickoff Mon 25 May 2026, 17:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1076) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Sandefjord 1–1 Fredrikstad ## Model verdict - **Sandefjord win:** 23% - **Draw:** 32% - **Fredrikstad win:** 45% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Statistical edge for visitors in a likely low-scoring contest ## The stage This Eliteserien fixture kicks off on Mon 25 May 2026 at 17:15 UTC[^fact-1]. The small margins that decide mid-season positioning make these matches valuable barometers: the model gives a clear lean away from the home side, with an away probability of 45%, a draw at 32% and a home win only 23% — the model’s confidence is described as mid, with a 13 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines point in opposite directions. Sandefjord have the healthier short-term record: LWWLD across their last ten fixtures, recorded as five wins, one draw and four losses, producing 1.60 points per game and an average of 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Fredrikstad arrive with a rougher sequence: WLLLL in their last ten, recorded as three wins, one draw and six losses, yielding 1.00 points per game and averages of 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. However, the Elo picture — with home advantage applied — favors Fredrikstad by a substantive margin: an Elo differential of +103 points in their favour[^fact-3]. That gap is material in probabilistic modeling and helps explain why the model assigns the higher away probability despite Sandefjord’s slightly better recent record on paper[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Spotlight on contributors and absentees is narrow but meaningful. For Sandefjord, Nikolaj Möller stands out as the in-form attacking option: two goals and zero assists across his last five appearances, with an average match rating of 6.84[^fact-8]. His direct output has been the clearest positive in Sandefjord’s recent sequence[^fact-4][^fact-8]. Fredrikstad’s most noteworthy recent performer in the numbers is Rocco Shein, who has not scored but has supplied two assists in his last five games and carries an average rating of 6.95[^fact-9]. That creative influence sits alongside the defensive issues implied by Fredrikstad’s 2.30 goals conceded per match in their recent run[^fact-5][^fact-9]. Availability matters. Sandefjord will be without Jakob Dunsby through injury; he logged 498 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-10]. Fredrikstad’s line-up is missing Leonard Owusu to injury as well, and Owusu accounted for 816 minutes in the recent run prior to that absence[^fact-11]. Both absences remove players who contributed substantial minutes to their sides, which can nudge balance in tight tactical contests[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Market comparison highlights two clear edges the model identifies versus public prices; three markets in total were analysed against the model[^fact-12]. The strongest single edge is on the Under 2.5 goals market: the model puts the probability for Under 2.5 at 72%, versus a market-implied price of 2.31 at Pinnacle, translating to an edge of 29.2 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6][^fact-12]. The second significant edge is on Both Teams to Score — No: the model’s probability is 66% while Betfair’s price sits at 2.45, producing an edge of 24.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7][^fact-12]. Those two recommendations are consistent with the box-score signals: Sandefjord’s recent scoring and conceding averages are both 1.00 goals per match[^fact-4], and Fredrikstad’s are 1.20 scored and 2.30 conceded per match[^fact-5], a combination that supports a greater chance of a low-scoring game and a single-side shutout than the market currently prices[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. The Elo edge for Fredrikstad adds nuance: the visitors’ higher rating suggests they can be the team to control phases of the match even if goals remain scarce[^fact-3]. ## Verdict The model leans to the away side while flagging a strong expectation for a low-scoring affair: Fredrikstad holds the statistical edge (model probabilities: Home 23% / Draw 32% / Away 45%), and the clearest market inefficiencies are On Under 2.5 goals and No on Both Teams to Score, both flagged with high confidence after comparing three markets against the model[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-12]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 25 May 2026, 17:15 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 23% / Draw 32% / Away 45% (source: model; confidence mid, 13 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad — Elo differential +103 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Sandefjord recent form** — LWWLD last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Fredrikstad recent form** — WLLLL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 72% vs market price 2.31 at Pinnacle, edge 29.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 66% vs market price 2.45 at Betfair, edge 24.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Sandefjord in-form player** — Nikolaj Möller — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.84. [^fact-9]: **Fredrikstad in-form player** — Rocco Shein — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.95. [^fact-10]: **Sandefjord key absence** — Jakob Dunsby out (injury), 498 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Fredrikstad key absence** — Leonard Owusu out (injury), 816 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .