# Fredrikstad vs Start > Eliteserien · Kickoff Fri 29 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1081) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Fredrikstad 2–1 Start ## Model verdict - **Fredrikstad win:** 71% - **Draw:** 19% - **Start win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Strong home edge meets fragile away defence in Eliteserien ## The stage This fixture kicks off on Fri 29 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC in the Eliteserien[^fact-1]. The match is framed by a clear home tilt in the underlying numbers — the model gives a dominating Home probability[^fact-2] and the Elo calculation already includes home advantage[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Fredrikstad arrive with mixed results across their last 10, recorded as DWLLL and a 3-2-5 W-D-L split, averaging 1.10 points per game and scoring 1.30 while conceding 1.90 goals per match[^fact-4]. Start's recent run is weaker on paper: WLLDL, a 1-4-5 record, 0.70 points per game, 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo differential is substantial in Fredrikstad's favour at +191 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3], and the model's probabilities echo that gap with Home 71% vs Away 10% (Draw 19%) and a confidence gap of 52 percentage points to the runner-up[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Fredrikstad's form player to watch is Rocco Shein, who has produced 0 goals and 2 assists across his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.00[^fact-7]. Start's most in-form contributor noted in the data is Erlend Segberg, who has 1 goal and 2 assists in his last five outings and an average rating of 6.97[^fact-8]. The absence lists matter: Fredrikstad are missing Leonard Owusu through injury, a player who accounted for 726 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9]. Start are without A. Ujkani due to injury, who logged 144 minutes in the recent period cited[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model's single strongest market divergence flagged in the supplied facts is the Match Winner market: the model places Home at 73% while the market price at bet365 implies a materially lower probability (market price 1.80), leaving an edge of 17.3 percentage points in favour of Home — this is presented with high confidence by the model[^fact-6]. That market comparison is one of three markets the model examined against the market set in the supplied analysis[^fact-11]. The baseline model verdict also assigns Home 71%, Draw 19% and Away 10% with high confidence and a 52 pp gap to the runner-up, reinforcing why the Home match-winner line stands out as the clearest discrepancy between model and market[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly toward the home side: a 71% pre-match Home probability and a +191 Elo edge after home adjustment suggest Fredrikstad enter as heavy favourites, a stance mirrored by the model's identified value in the Home match-winner market compared to the quoted market price[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 29 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 71% / Draw 19% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 52 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Fredrikstad vs Start — Elo differential +191 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Fredrikstad recent form** — DWLLL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Start recent form** — WLLDL last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 2.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 73% vs market price 1.80 at bet365, edge 17.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Fredrikstad in-form player** — Rocco Shein — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.00. [^fact-8]: **Start in-form player** — Erlend Segberg — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.97. [^fact-9]: **Fredrikstad key absence** — Leonard Owusu out (injury), 726 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Start key absence** — A. Ujkani out (injury), 144 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .