# Brann vs Sarpsborg 08 > Eliteserien · Kickoff Fri 29 May 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1082) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Brann 1–2 Sarpsborg 08 ## Model verdict - **Brann win:** 57% - **Draw:** 22% - **Sarpsborg 08 win:** 22% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge backed by Elo gap and attacking form ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Fri 29 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC in an Eliteserien fixture that carries the routine pressures of mid-season points accumulation and home advantage for SKB[^fact-1]. The model gives a clear lean to the hosts, with a 57% chance for a home win versus 22% for a draw and 22% for an away win; model confidence is high, with a 35 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum SKB arrive with more consistent recent returns: an LLWWW sequence in the last 10 that translates to 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses, yielding 1.30 points per game and an attacking output of 2.10 goals scored while conceding 1.50 per match[^fact-4]. Sarpsborg 08’s last 10 read WLWLL — 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats — and the side sits slightly lower on productivity at 1.10 points per game with 1.10 goals scored and the same 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The raw Elo picture, with home advantage applied, shows a substantial 227-point edge for SKB over Sarpsborg 08, which helps quantify why the model favours the hosts[^fact-3]. ## Personnel SKB’s attacking rhythm is being driven by K. Ingason, who has 4 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances alongside an average rating of 7.49 — a clear form indicator in the final third[^fact-7]. Sarpsborg 08 looks to Daniel Karlsbakk for goal threat; his last five returns are 2 goals, no assists, with an average rating of 6.55[^fact-8]. Availability notes that SKB will be without Denzel De Roeve through injury; he has played 496 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a moderate chunk of recent involvement[^fact-9]. Sarpsborg 08 have M. Opoku out injured as well; he contributed 173 minutes in the recent period and his absence is proportionally smaller but still notable for depth or rotation[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market discrepancy identified versus model prices is the Over 2.5 goals line. The model places the probability of Over 2.5 at 84%, while the market price from 10Bet sits at 1.48; that represents an edge of 16.2 percentage points and carries high model confidence[^fact-6]. Three markets were analysed against the model in total, and this Over 2.5 outcome emerges as the standout divergence between model view and market pricing[^fact-11]. The statistical case for a goal-heavy match is supported by SKB’s 2.10 goals scored per match in the recent run and both teams conceding 1.50 per match in their respective last-10 samples, which collectively raises the likelihood of at least three goals[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model’s leaning is to the home side: a 57% home-win probability, backed by a 227-point Elo advantage and superior recent attacking output for SKB relative to Sarpsborg 08[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. The single strongest market inefficiency flagged is Over 2.5 goals, where the model’s 84% estimate diverges sharply from the quoted 1.48 market price (edge 16.2 pp)[^fact-6][^fact-11]. Personnel absences cut both ways but do not erase the host’s quantifiable edge — SKB’s attacking form around K. Ingason and the large Elo gap are decisive signals in the model’s forecast[^fact-7][^fact-9][^fact-3]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 29 May 2026, 17:00 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 57% / Draw 22% / Away 22% (source: model; confidence high, 35 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SKB vs Sarpsborg 08 — Elo differential +227 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SKB recent form** — LLWWW last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Sarpsborg 08 recent form** — WLWLL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 84% vs market price 1.48 at 10Bet, edge 16.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **SKB in-form player** — K. Ingason — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.49. [^fact-8]: **Sarpsborg 08 in-form player** — Daniel Karlsbakk — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.55. [^fact-9]: **SKB key absence** — Denzel De Roeve out (injury), 496 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Sarpsborg 08 key absence** — M. Opoku out (injury), 173 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .