# GAIS vs Kalmar > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sat 30 May 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1085) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** GAIS 3–0 Kalmar ## Model verdict - **GAIS win:** 73% - **Draw:** 14% - **Kalmar win:** 13% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavily home with defence-first profile expected ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 30 May 2026, 13:00 UTC in the Allsvenskan[^fact-1]. The model gives a clear favourite to the home side with a 73% probability for the hosts, a 14% chance of a draw and 13% for the away team[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum GAIS enter the fixture with a recent sequence of LWDWW over the last 10 matches and a points-per-game average of 1.20; they have averaged 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match in that span[^fact-4]. Kalmar’s last 10 read WLWLW, producing 1.00 points per game, with 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s projection aligns with a substantial Elo differential — GAIS carry a +294 Elo edge once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. That combination of superior Elo and the marginally better recent defensive numbers underpins the model’s confidence in the home side[^fact-3][^fact-4]. ## Personnel For GAIS, William Milovanovic has been the most in-form attacking contributor, delivering 1 goal and 2 assists across his last five appearances and averaging a 7.10 match rating in that period[^fact-9]. Kalmar’s form player is Charles Sagoe Jr, who has supplied 1 goal and 5 assists in his last five outings and carries a 7.64 average rating over those games[^fact-10]. Kalmar will be missing A. Keita through injury, a named absence that should be considered when judging their attacking balance[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three market edges stand out where the model and market diverge. First, Home in Match Winner: the model prices the home win at 79% while MansionBet’s market sits around 1.87, creating a 25.4 percentage-point edge for the model (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, Under on Goals O/U 2.5: the model assigns a 70% chance to under 2.5, versus a market price of 1.91 at 10Bet, an edge of 17.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, No on Both Teams to Score: the model gives a 63% probability to BTTS = No while Betfair quotes 2.00, leaving a 13.5 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-8]. These three markets were among the set compared against the model outputs in the market scan (3 market(s) analysed)[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisively toward the home side, driven by a +294 Elo advantage and a clear projected probability split (Home 73% / Draw 14% / Away 13%); the underlying match profile favours a low-scoring game and the possibility that only one side finds the net[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 30 May 2026, 13:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 73% / Draw 14% / Away 13% (source: model; confidence high, 59 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — GAIS vs KAL — Elo differential +294 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **GAIS recent form** — LWDWW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **KAL recent form** — WLWLW last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 79% vs market price 1.87 at MansionBet, edge 25.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 70% vs market price 1.91 at 10Bet, edge 17.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 63% vs market price 2.00 at Betfair, edge 13.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **GAIS in-form player** — William Milovanovic — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.10. [^fact-10]: **KAL in-form player** — Charles Sagoe Jr — 1 goals, 5 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.64. [^fact-11]: **KAL key absence** — A. Keita out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .