# Almería vs Real Valladolid > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1090) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Almería 1–0 Real Valladolid ## Model verdict - **Almería win:** 78% - **Draw:** 14% - **Real Valladolid win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home bias as model backs attacking outcome ## The stage This is a late-May La Liga 2 fixture scheduled for Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The calendar slot and competition context make this a final-phase match in the second tier[^fact-1]. No venue details are supplied in the dataset; focus is therefore on timing and competition[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Almería arrive with a mixed-but-improving sequence: LLDWW across their last 10 results, recorded as 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses, yielding 1.60 points per game in that span[^fact-4]. That sequence has produced 2.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match across the same sample[^fact-4]. Valladolid present a weaker recent ledger: LLWLW across their last 10, listed as 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses, worth 1.00 point per game[^fact-5]. Their scoring and defensive averages are 0.80 goals for and 1.10 conceded per match over that run[^fact-5]. The model applies a large Elo edge to the home side — +275 Elo points in Almería’s favour after home advantage is included[^fact-3]. That gap underpins a strongly skewed model verdict: Home 78%, Draw 14%, Away 9%[^fact-2]. The model’s confidence is notable: a 64 percentage-point gap separates the top pick from the runner-up[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Almería’s most in-form attacking outlet in the supplied data is Sergio Arribas, who has produced 3 goals and 0 assists in his last 5 appearances and carries an average rating of 7.33 across those matches[^fact-9]. Valladolid’s most notable recent performer in the dataset is Stipe Biuk, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 4 appearances and an average match rating of 6.90[^fact-10]. Valladolid are missing Juanmi Latasa through injury, a player logged with 658 minutes in the recent run captured by the facts[^fact-11]. That absence is the single listed key unavailability in the provided notes and will alter Valladolid’s attacking inventory as recorded here[^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model in this file[^fact-12]. The clearest edge is on Over 2.5 goals: the model projects Over 2.5 at 74% versus a market price of 1.57 at 10Bet, an edge of 10.3 percentage points flagged as high confidence[^fact-6]. Both Teams to Score (Yes) is a secondary value signal: the model gives it 67% likelihood against a 1.73 market price at 10Bet, generating a 9.1 pp edge and also graded high confidence[^fact-7]. The primary-match-winner market favors the home side in the modelling: Home (Almería) is 77% by the model versus a market price of 1.45 at Interwetten, an 8.1 pp edge and high confidence in that projection[^fact-8]. Each of these three markets is explicitly compared to the market prices listed in the dataset and identified as having material model edges[^fact-12]. ## Verdict The model leans heavily to the home side with a 78% match-winner probability and a 275-point Elo advantage after home uplift[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Converging signals point to an open game: Almería’s attacking production of 2.10 goals per match in the recent sample and Valladolid’s defensive concession rate of 1.10 suggest room for goals, which the model quantifies with a strong Over 2.5 projection and a Both Teams to Score case[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Sergio Arribas is the form variable to watch for the hosts, while Valladolid feel the impact of Juanmi Latasa’s absence in the minutes recorded here[^fact-9][^fact-11]. The aggregate model probability and market edges favour a home-sided, goal-inclined game according to the supplied analysis[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 78% / Draw 14% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 64 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ALM vs REV — Elo differential +275 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ALM recent form** — LLDWW last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **REV recent form** — LLWLW last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 74% vs market price 1.57 at 10Bet, edge 10.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 67% vs market price 1.73 at 10Bet, edge 9.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 77% vs market price 1.45 at Interwetten, edge 8.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **ALM in-form player** — Sergio Arribas — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-10]: **REV in-form player** — Stipe Biuk — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.90. [^fact-11]: **REV key absence** — Juanmi Latasa out (injury), 658 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .