# Burgos vs FC Andorra > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1091) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Burgos 1–0 FC Andorra ## Model verdict - **Burgos win:** 65% - **Draw:** 18% - **FC Andorra win:** 17% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home side dominant on paper with defensive edge ## The stage This is the late‑Sunday La Liga 2 tie kicking off at 16:30 UTC on 31 May 2026, a fixture that sits squarely in the final run of the season and will be decided on the pitch rather than the spreadsheets alone[^fact-1]. The model projects a clear home advantage: Home 66%, Draw 17%, Away 16%[^fact-2]. That split is reflected in the applied Elo differential, which gives the home side a +160‑point edge once venue has been accounted for[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Recent form lines tell a useful, slightly more nuanced story. The home side arrives unbeaten in the last five matches with a sequence recorded as WWDDD in their last ten, delivering 1.90 points per game while scoring 1.10 and conceding 0.70 on average[^fact-4]. The visitors’ last ten read LLWLW, which the raw record summarises as 6‑1‑3 (W‑D‑L) with an identical 1.90 points per game figure, but a markedly more aggressive goals profile: 2.50 scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Put simply: the home side’s recent results underline defensive solidity and low concede rates[^fact-4], while the visitors show greater offensive volatility and higher scoring output[^fact-5]. The Elo gap of +160 points with home advantage applied quantifies a significant expected quality difference in favour of the hosts[^fact-3], and the model’s confidence gap — a 49 percentage‑point lead over the runner‑up outcome — reinforces that margin in probabilistic terms[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Two players stand out for current form. David González has been the most dangerous attacking presence for the home side, with three goals in his last five appearances and an average match rating of 7.09[^fact-9]. On the other flank of the contest, Josep Cerdà carries recent influence for the visitors, contributing two goals and one assist across his last five outings with an average rating of 7.19[^fact-10]. The visitors are also missing a defensive figure: Théo Le Normand is out injured and contributed 224 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-11]. That withdrawal matters given the visitors’ higher goals‑for rate but also their slightly elevated goals‑against per match[^fact-5][^fact-11]. There are no other named personnel changes in the supplied facts, so tactical rotations and bench depth must be inferred from club practice rather than the available dataset. ## Where the model sees value The model flags three specific market edges compared against the market, across three markets analysed[^fact-12]. First, the strongest single edge is on Under 2.5 goals: the model gives this outcome a 70% probability against a market price of 1.85 at bet365, an edge of 15.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. That aligns with the home side’s low concede rate of 0.70 goals per match and modest scoring of 1.10 per game[^fact-4], which together bias the fixture toward fewer total goals. Second, the model is heavily aligned with the home match‑winner: model probability 76% versus a market price of 1.55 at Interwetten, an 11.4 percentage‑point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. This is consistent with the Elo advantage of +160 with home applied and the model’s overall Home 66% projection, which together convey a meaningful predictive lean toward the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Third, the model favours “No” on Both Teams to Score at 61% versus a market price of 1.80 at Betfair, an edge of 5.4 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-8]. That call reflects the convergence of the home side’s low concede rate and the visitors’ scoring profile: the visitors do score more, but the home defensive numbers suggest matches can tilt toward clean sheets or single‑team scoring lines[^fact-4][^fact-5]. All three markets were examined against the available market prices in the analysis (three markets compared to the model)[^fact-12]. The strongest conviction sits with Under 2.5 goals and Home in Match Winner, both flagged with high confidence by the model[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward a home win, supported by a large Elo advantage and a strong market edge for the hosts, while the statistical profile of both sides — home defensive compactness versus visitors’ higher attacking variance — drives the complimentary lean towards a low‑scoring game and a realistic chance of one side keeping the scoreboard closed[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 66% / Draw 17% / Away 16% (source: model; confidence high, 49 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BUR vs AND — Elo differential +160 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BUR recent form** — WWDDD last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **AND recent form** — LLWLW last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 70% vs market price 1.85 at bet365, edge 15.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 76% vs market price 1.55 at Interwetten, edge 11.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 61% vs market price 1.80 at Betfair, edge 5.4 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **BUR in-form player** — David González — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.09. [^fact-10]: **AND in-form player** — Josep Cerdà — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.19. [^fact-11]: **AND key absence** — Théo Le Normand out (injury), 224 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .