# Castellón vs SD Eibar > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1092) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and form clash set scene for tight La Liga 2 battle ## The stage This La Liga 2 fixture kicks off Sun 31 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC, a late-May showdown with clear competitive weight given the timing in the calendar[^fact-1]. The supplied facts do not include a venue or further contextual details beyond kick-off and competition in the dataset provided[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum On paper, Castellón enter with steady returns over the last sample: a WDDLW sequence and a 5-4-1 record in the ten matches cited, worth 1.90 points per game and an output of 1.80 goals scored against 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Their home-applied Elo gives them an effective edge of +66 points over Eibar, a non-trivial single-metric advantage once location is considered[^fact-3]. Eibar have been hotter in raw recent results: WLWLW and a 7-1-2 split in the ten-match window, producing 2.20 points per game with 1.80 goals scored and a noticeably tighter defensive return of 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The form lines therefore point in different directions: Castellón backed by the home-adjusted Elo premium[^fact-3] and respectable stability[^fact-4], Eibar by superior points-per-game and defensive solidity away from the simple Elo snapshot[^fact-5]. The market and model divergence is informative: the model gives a clear favourite to the home side at 61% probability, a draw at 21% and the away win at 17% — a 40 percentage-point gap to the runner-up in confidence terms, underlining the model’s conviction here[^fact-2]. Those market comparisons were analysed across three markets against the model’s outputs in the supplied dataset[^fact-8]. ## Personnel Castellón’s attacking spark in the recent period is Álex Calatrava, who has three goals and zero assists across his last five appearances while posting an average match rating of 8.08 in the supplied window[^fact-6]. That profile points to a player in peak finishing rhythm for this sample and a clear focal point for Castellón’s chance creation[^fact-6]. Eibar’s short-term talisman is José Corpas, who has two goals and one assist in his last five outings with an average rating of 7.26 in the provided facts[^fact-7]. His contributions are one reason for Eibar’s elevated points return and goal production in the form snapshot[^fact-5][^fact-7]. The fact set supplied does not include injury lists or suspension notes, so no definitive claims about absences can be made from the available data[^fact-1]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities give Castellón a dominant single-game expectation: 61% home win probability against a market implied positioning that prompted a three-market comparison in the dataset[^fact-2][^fact-8]. That 61% figure is the clearest numerical edge from model versus market in the supplied facts[^fact-2]. Two contextual counters emerge from the raw match data supplied: Eibar’s superior recent points-per-game (2.20) and the stingier goals-against rate (0.80) suggest their form-based threat is meaningful even when the Elo home advantage is applied in Castellón’s favour[^fact-5][^fact-3]. Conversely, Castellón’s steady scoring (1.80 g/90 in the sample) and the presence of a high-rated finisher in Calatrava (avg 8.08) underpin the model’s home lean[^fact-4][^fact-6]. The supplied materials show a 40 percentage-point gap between the model’s top-probability outcome and the runner-up, which in the dataset’s framing represents high conviction from the model and is the primary numerical justification for any claim of model-driven value in the home side on the supplied facts[^fact-2]. The three market comparisons included in the data provide the benchmarking that produced that conviction note[^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side, assigning Castellón a 61% chance while relegating a draw and away win to 21% and 17% respectively; that split sits alongside an Elo advantage for Castellón of +66 (home-adjusted) but must be balanced against Eibar’s stronger recent points yield and defensive record in the supplied form window[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. The newsroom’s read: Castellón carry the model’s seal of approval, but Eibar’s form figures and Corpas’s involvement keep this contest expectably competitive on the numbers provided[^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 61% / Draw 21% / Away 17% (source: odds; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Castellón vs EIB — Elo differential +66 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Castellón recent form** — WDDLW last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **EIB recent form** — WLWLW last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Castellón in-form player** — Álex Calatrava — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.08. [^fact-7]: **EIB in-form player** — José Corpas — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.26. [^fact-8]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .