# Castellón vs SD Eibar > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1092) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Castellón 2–1 SD Eibar ## Model verdict - **Castellón win:** 59% - **Draw:** 20% - **SD Eibar win:** 21% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tightly poised second-division clash hinges on low-scoring edge ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC in a La Liga 2 fixture that settles on fine margins and situational edges[^fact-1]. The fixture’s competitive context is straightforward: both sides carry recent form narratives that will determine whether this becomes a high-variance shootout or a closed, attritional 90 minutes[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum On paper, the model leans to the home side but not overwhelmingly: Home 48% / Draw 21% / Away 31%[^fact-2]. That projection comes with a clear confidence signal — a 17 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome — which makes the model’s top-line lean meaningful rather than marginal[^fact-2]. Elo underlines a tangible edge for the hosts: an Elo differential of +66 points with home advantage applied[^fact-3]. That is reflected in how both teams have shaped results over their last spells. Castellón have produced a WDDLW sequence in their last 10 and are averaging 1.90 points per game, scoring 1.80 and conceding 1.20 per match[^fact-4]. By contrast, Eibar’s recent ten matches read WLWLW and translate to a stronger 2.20 points per game, with 1.80 goals scored and a notably lower 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those numbers frame the tension: Castellón’s home Elo tilt and reasonable attacking output versus Eibar’s superior recent points rate and tighter defensive concession figure — a matchup between home advantage and recent defensive form[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Castellón’s most in-form contributor in the supplied facts is Álex Calatrava: three goals and zero assists in his last five appearances, carrying an average match rating of 8.08[^fact-8]. Eibar’s standout in-form player in the data is José Corpas, with two goals, one assist and an average rating of 7.26 across his last five games[^fact-9]. The supplied facts do not provide a list of absences or suspensions, so selection uncertainty beyond these form snippets cannot be assessed from the available dataset[^fact-10]. That limitation places extra emphasis on the measurable output numbers above when forecasting the likely match rhythm and danger sources[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies two clear market edges relative to public prices. First, the Under 2.5 goals (model 69%) is the strongest single edge: model probability 69% versus a market price of 2.46 at Pinnacle, an edge of 28.7 percentage points and flagged as high confidence[^fact-6]. Second, the model finds value on “No” for Both Teams to Score with a 62% model probability versus a market price of 2.23 at 1xbet, an edge of 17.0 percentage points and also high confidence[^fact-7]. Both value lines point to the same substantive expectation: a low-scoring, possibly one-sided or single-team-scoring contest rather than an open, end-to-end game[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Those model probabilities are derived from three markets analyzed against market prices in the supplied data, which provides the comparison set for the edges identified[^fact-10]. Why those prices make sense within the match context: Castellón’s home-Elo advantage suggests they can control large phases of the game[^fact-3], but their goals-for and goals-against numbers (1.80 scored / 1.20 conceded) sit alongside Eibar’s defensively efficient recent record (0.80 conceded) in a way that suppresses expected combined goals[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The individual form of Calatrava and Corpas offers concrete goal threat, but neither profile in the facts implies a fixture likely to produce a high aggregate scoreline alone[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model leans to Castellón at home but frames this as a close match with a pronounced low-scoring tilt; the strongest and highest-confidence edges are on Under 2.5 goals and No for Both Teams to Score[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 48% / Draw 21% / Away 31% (source: model; confidence high, 17 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Castellón vs EIB — Elo differential +66 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Castellón recent form** — WDDLW last 10: 5-4-1 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **EIB recent form** — WLWLW last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 69% vs market price 2.46 at Pinnacle, edge 28.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 62% vs market price 2.23 at 1xbet, edge 17.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Castellón in-form player** — Álex Calatrava — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.08. [^fact-9]: **EIB in-form player** — José Corpas — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.26. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .