# Deportivo La Coruña vs Las Palmas > La Liga 2 · Kickoff Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1094) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Deportivo La Coruña 1–2 Las Palmas ## Model verdict - **Deportivo La Coruña win:** 48% - **Draw:** 38% - **Las Palmas win:** 14% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Deportivo slight favourites on form and Elo — low-scoring tilt likely ## The stage This is a late-May La Liga 2 fixture kicking off Sun 31 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC, with promotion and playoff narratives still very much in view for both sides[^fact-1]. The model assigns the home outcome the single largest probability but not an overwhelming one: Home 48% / Draw 38% / Away 14%, with the model’s confidence graded as mid and a 10 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. The Elo calculation that underpins team quality comparisons gives Deportivo a substantial edge, with an Elo differential of +191 points after applying the home advantage[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Deportivo arrive on the back of a strong recent run: WWWWD in their last 10, translating to 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 defeats in that sequence, worth 2.20 points per game with an attacking return of 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per match over the sample[^fact-4]. Las Palmas’ last-10 sequence reads DWLWW, which the data summarises as 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in the same window, generating 1.90 points per game with 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The raw form lines are closer than the Elo gap suggests: Deportivo’s defensive solidity stands out (0.70 conceded vs 1.50 for Las Palmas)[^fact-4][^fact-5], while Las Palmas carry a slightly higher attacking variance. Momentum therefore tilts to Deportivo on defensive consistency, with the Elo edge amplifying that advantage[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Deportivo’s in-form attacking outlet is Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack, who has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances, posting an average match rating of 7.15 over that run[^fact-7]. For Las Palmas, Kirian Rodríguez is the obvious spark: 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five, with an average rating of 7.30[^fact-8]. Squad disruption matters too: Deportivo will be without David Mella through injury[^fact-9], while Las Palmas are missing Viti Rozada (injury), who accumulated 636 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-10]. The minutes figure for Rozada suggests his absence could alter Las Palmas’ rotation or defensive workload[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Comparing model probabilities to market prices across three markets flagged a notable edge on the total goals market[^fact-11]. The model’s top value pick is Under 2.5 goals: model-implied probability 60% versus a market price of 1.91 at Sbo, yielding an edge of 7.6 percentage points (confidence rated mid)[^fact-6]. That projection coheres with Deportivo’s defensive numbers (0.70 conceded per match in the recent sample) and Las Palmas’ middling conceded figure (1.50), which together make a low-scoring outcome credible on the available data[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model still prefers the home outcome outright (48%), but the market prices leave room to extract value from the expectation of fewer goals than most bettors are paying for[^fact-2][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans toward a Deportivo result while signalling a tight affair: home advantage plus a +191 Elo cushion supports a Deportivo lean, but the best market mismatch sits on Under 2.5 goals where the model’s 60% probability outstrips the market offering at 1.91 by 7.6 percentage points[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-11]. Personnel notes — Tonfack and Kirian Rodríguez the obvious attacking threats, offset by absences for David Mella and Viti Rozada — reinforce the expectation of a contest decided by narrow margins rather than a wide-open goalfest[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 31 May 2026, 16:30 UTC — La Liga 2 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 48% / Draw 38% / Away 14% (source: model; confidence mid, 10 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — COR vs LPA — Elo differential +191 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **COR recent form** — WWWWD last 10: 6-4-0 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 0.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LPA recent form** — DWLWW last 10: 6-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.90 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 60% vs market price 1.91 at Sbo, edge 7.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **COR in-form player** — Bil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.15. [^fact-8]: **LPA in-form player** — Kirian Rodríguez — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.30. [^fact-9]: **COR key absence** — David Mella out (injury). [^fact-10]: **LPA key absence** — Viti Rozada out (injury), 636 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .