# Västerås SK vs IFK Göteborg > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sun 31 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1100) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Västerås SK 4–5 IFK Göteborg ## Model verdict - **Västerås SK win:** 9% - **Draw:** 19% - **IFK Göteborg win:** 71% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavily to the away side amid goal probability edge ## The stage This Allsvenskan fixture kicks off Sun 31 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC — exact venue details are not supplied in the provided facts[^fact-1]. The scheduling places the match in the middle of the Swedish domestic slate and sets a noon kickoff that can compress recovery windows across the weekend for both squads[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The quantitative picture is tilted toward the visitors. The model assigns the home side a 9% chance, a 19% probability of a draw, and a 71% probability to the away team — a gap to the runner-up that the model flags as high confidence (52 percentage points advantage over the next outcome)[^fact-2]. The Elo-adjusted view also favours the away team, with an Elo differential of +22 in their favour after home advantage was applied[^fact-3]. Recent results underline the divergence. Västerås SK’s last 10 read as W D L L W (3-4-3), yielding 1.30 points per game, 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. IFK Göteborg’s last 10 are D L L D D (1-5-4), producing 0.80 points per game with 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raw outputs show Västerås SK slightly more productive offensively than Göteborg, but the model still overwhelmingly prefers the away side once Elo and other inputs are combined[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Västerås SK’s most-noted recent performer in the supplied facts is Simon Gefvert, with 0 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.90 in those games[^fact-7]. For IFK Göteborg the in-form spotlight lands on David Kruse, who has 1 goal and 1 assist across his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.08[^fact-8]. The single explicit availability note provided is the absence of Arbnor Mucolli for Göteborg due to injury, recorded as a key absence in the supplied data[^fact-9]. No further squad lists or tactical changes are supplied, so assessment of depth and replacements must rely on the model and form data rather than additional personnel details[^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared against the model in the supplied analysis[^fact-10]. The clearest numerical edge reported is on Over 2.5 goals: the model prices an Over probability at 58% versus a market price translating to 1.92 at Sbo, producing an edge of 6.2 percentage points with mid-level confidence[^fact-6]. That is the only specific market-level edge included in the facts; the model’s heavy leaning toward the away side sits alongside this goal-line view but no direct odds-on match-winner market price is provided in the supplied facts[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-10]. Interpreting the single market edge in context: Västerås SK’s recent scoring rate of 1.40 goals per match and Göteborg’s conceded rate of 1.60 contribute to a plausible path to multiple-goal games in the data provided, while Göteborg’s own low scoring (0.70 per match) complicates a pure expectation of high scoring — the model nevertheless estimates a 58% chance of clearing 2.5 goals[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. The model’s over/under assessment is therefore the explicit spot where it departs from market pricing in the supplied facts[^fact-6][^fact-10]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is strongly toward the away team, assigning a 71% probability to an away win and flagging that preference with a 52-point confidence margin over the runner-up outcome; the Elo differential of +22 after home adjustment reinforces that stance[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Simultaneously, the model finds value on Over 2.5 goals at a 58% probability versus a market price of 1.92, an edge of 6.2 percentage points that is the primary market discrepancy reported in the facts[^fact-6][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 31 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 19% / Away 71% (source: model; confidence high, 52 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Västerås SK vs GOT — Elo differential +22 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Västerås SK recent form** — WDLLW last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **GOT recent form** — DLLDD last 10: 1-5-4 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 58% vs market price 1.92 at Sbo, edge 6.2 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **Västerås SK in-form player** — Simon Gefvert — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.90. [^fact-8]: **GOT in-form player** — David Kruse — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.08. [^fact-9]: **GOT key absence** — Arbnor Mucolli out (injury). [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .