# Degerfors vs Brommapojkarna > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sun 31 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1101) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home slight favourites despite narrow model split and Elo edge ## The stage Kick-off is Sun 31 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC in Allsvenskan[^fact-1]. The fixture is presented as a tight contest in the model, with the home side marginally favoured over the away side[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Degerfors have played LDLDD across their last ten matches, registering a 3-3-4 W-D-L split and averaging 1.20 points per game while scoring 1.30 and conceding 1.50 goals per match[^fact-4]. Brommapojkarna arrive with a WWLWL sequence in their last ten, a 4-2-4 W-D-L split and a slightly higher 1.40 points per game figure; they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On Elo, Degerfors carry a clear home-adjusted edge of +47 points over Brommapojkarna[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Degerfors’ in-form contributor Daniel Sundgren has delivered 0 goals and 3 assists in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.08[^fact-6]. For Brommapojkarna, Oliver Berg has produced 1 goal and 3 assists across his last five outings and posts an average rating of 7.09[^fact-7]. There are no supplied facts that list absences or suspensions for either side in the structured data provided here[^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value The model probabilities split Home 39% / Draw 29% / Away 32%, signalling a narrow but meaningful lean toward the home side with a 7 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That lean sits alongside an Elo differential that favours the hosts by +47 points once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Markets were compared across three separate offerings versus the model for this fixture[^fact-8]. Reading those numbers together produces two clean edges. First, the combination of a 39% home probability and a +47 Elo edge suggests the market-implied prices that understate the home advantage in situations where Elo divergence is that size[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Second, the model’s distribution is compressed—home only 39% with the away not far behind at 32%—so any market price that creates wider separation than that compression implies can be interrogated for value; this assessment was informed by comparisons across three markets[^fact-2][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans home but the contest is close: Degerfors have the decisive Elo edge (+47) and a modest home probability advantage (39% v 32%), while Brommapojkarna’s recent points-per-game and goals numbers keep this within reach for the visitors[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 31 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 39% / Draw 29% / Away 32% (source: odds; confidence mid, 7 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Degerfors vs Brommapojkarna — Elo differential +47 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Degerfors recent form** — LDLDD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Brommapojkarna recent form** — WWLWL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Degerfors in-form player** — Daniel Sundgren — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.08. [^fact-7]: **Brommapojkarna in-form player** — Oliver Berg — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.09. [^fact-8]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .