# Häcken vs Hammarby > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sun 31 May 2026, 12:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/1102) **Status:** Scheduled ## Pre-match deep dive ### Narrow Elo edge and Besara’s form tilt the balance away from the hosts ## The stage This Allsvenskan fixture kicks off on Sun 31 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC, a lunchtime slot that compresses the weekend slate[^fact-1]. The match pairs the home side Häcken with visitors Hammarby, a midweek-to-weekend rhythm that matters for squad freshness[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent results present a contrast in trajectories. Häcken arrive on a run described as DWWDD across their last 10, producing 1.70 points per game and registering 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Hammarby’s last-10 sequence is LLWWW, with the same 1.70 points per game but a markedly different profile: 2.20 goals scored and just 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model gives Hammarby the clearer probability edge in this clash, pricing them at 43% versus Häcken’s 31% and a draw at 25%[^fact-2]. That market-implied advantage sits alongside a small Elo gap: the home-applied Elo differential favors the hosts by +11 points, a margin that is meaningful but not decisive in isolation[^fact-3]. The juxtaposition is straightforward — Hammarby’s scoring trend and defensive stinginess in the last 10 point to greater attacking output and defensive efficiency, while Häcken’s Elo-adjusted home status still supplies a narrow rating buffer[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Häcken’s in-form source of goals has been G. Lindgren, who has netted 3 goals in his last 5 appearances and carries an average rating of 6.92 across that run[^fact-6]. That scoring rhythm is a clear offensive focal point for the hosts and a key outlet within Häcken’s 1.70 goals-per-game profile[^fact-4][^fact-6]. Hammarby arrive with Nahir Besara driving form at the other end: 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances, with an average rating of 7.83 in that span[^fact-7]. Besara’s contributions map directly to Hammarby’s higher expected output of 2.20 goals per match over the last 10[^fact-5][^fact-7]. The visitors also have a notable absence: Sourou Koné is out injured and has 1 minute in the recent run, removing whatever minutes and role he provided[^fact-8]. That unavailability is the clearest personnel-impacting fact in the build-up and should be factored into Hammarby’s selection and rotation considerations[^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value The model (odds-based) places Hammarby as the single most likely outcome at 43%, with Häcken on 31% and the draw on 25% — a 12 percentage-point gap between Hammarby and the hosts and a 18-point gap to the draw[^fact-2]. Markets analysed against the model number three separate markets, which informed the comparison between model-implied probabilities and bookmakers’ pricing[^fact-9][^fact-2]. Value narratives emerging from those numbers: Hammarby’s superior goals-per-game (2.20 versus 1.70) and tighter goals-against (1.00 versus 1.30) across the last-10 windows argue for backing their offensive edge and defensive solidity[^fact-5]. Meanwhile Häcken’s home-applied Elo edge of +11 points injects caution, indicating the hosts retain a structural rating advantage that could blunt Hammarby’s attacking momentum[^fact-3]. Given those inputs, the clearest market mismatch the model flags is the gap between Hammarby’s higher scoring form and the relatively compressed market price gap to the home side; the model’s 43% for Hammarby versus Häcken’s 31% is the top-line finding driving any adjustments to stance[^fact-2]. The three-market comparison underlines this as the primary discrepancy identified by the quantitative overlay[^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model leans to the away side: Hammarby are the favourite on the numbers, driven by superior recent attacking output and a compact defensive record, while Häcken’s +11 Elo edge and home setting prevent the situation from being a one-sided projection[^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. G. Lindgren and Nahir Besara remain the decisive individual form stories to watch, while Sourou Koné’s absence is Hammarby’s only highlighted personnel concern[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 31 May 2026, 12:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 31% / Draw 25% / Away 43% (source: odds; confidence mid, 12 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HAC vs HAM — Elo differential +11 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HAC recent form** — DWWDD last 10: 4-5-1 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HAM recent form** — LLWWW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **HAC in-form player** — G. Lindgren — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.92. [^fact-7]: **HAM in-form player** — Nahir Besara — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.83. [^fact-8]: **HAM key absence** — Sourou Koné out (injury), 1 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .