# Hull City vs Millwall > Championship · Kickoff Fri 8 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/3281) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Hull City 0–0 Millwall ## Model verdict - **Hull City win:** 10% - **Draw:** 29% - **Millwall win:** 61% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model heavily favours the Lions as visitors carry momentum ## The stage This Friday fixture kicks off at 19:00 UTC in the Championship on 8 May 2026 — a late-week match that lands with league implications for both sides[^fact-1]. The timing compresses recovery windows and concentrates attention on final-season form for teams wanting to close strong[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Formlines point sharply in one direction. Hull City arrive with a 10-match sequence that reads WLDDL, recorded as 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses over that span[^fact-4]. That sequence is worth 1.30 points per game, with the team scoring 1.30 goals and conceding 1.40 per match in that run[^fact-4]. Millwall’s last 10 are noticeably healthier: WDWWD, listed as 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses[^fact-5]. Millwall’s form is returning 1.80 points per game, with 1.40 goals scored and a much tighter defensive output of 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raws are reinforced by the Elo picture: Hull sit behind by 45 Elo points even after the usual home adjustment has been applied[^fact-3]. The Elo gap combined with the points-per-game split signals clear momentum and quality advantage for the visitors through recent weeks[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. ## Personnel Hull’s attacking focal point in recent matches has been Oliver McBurnie, who has 4 goals and no assists in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.45 in that spell[^fact-6]. That scoring burst is a meaningful share of Hull’s output given the side’s 1.30 goals per match across the recent run[^fact-6][^fact-4]. The heaviest functional loss for Hull is the absence of Amir Hadziahmetovic with an injury that rules him out; he logged 390 minutes in the recent run prior to missing this game[^fact-8]. That minutes tally indicates he was a regular contributor to recent tactical patterns before the injury[^fact-8]. Millwall’s in-form contributor highlighted by the model is Camiel Neghli, who has two goals and one assist in his last five matches and an average match rating of 7.41 in that period[^fact-7]. The solitary listed miss for Millwall is Danny McNamara, who is out injured after 150 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9]. The contrast in depth impact is notable: Hull lose a higher-minute contributor, while Millwall’s absentee looks less extensive minutes-wise in the recent sample[^fact-8][^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model produces a clear probability split: home 10% / draw 29% / away 61% — a 61% forecast for the away win with a 32 percentage-point gap to the runner-up, which the model flags with high confidence[^fact-2]. Markets analysed for this preview numbered three separate offerings[^fact-10]. Against those markets, the model’s top edges concentrate on the away outcome — the model’s 61% away probability contrasts strongly with the implied market position across the three markets reviewed[^fact-2][^fact-10]. Secondary edges follow from the defensive picture: Millwall concede just 0.80 goals per match in their last 10, compared to Hull’s 1.40 conceded per match, which shapes expectations around controlled away performances rather than a wildly open game[^fact-5][^fact-4]. That defensive superiority, combined with the Elo advantage of -45 in Hull’s favour metric (meaning Millwall carry the edge after home adjustment), underpins the model’s skew toward the visitors[^fact-3][^fact-5]. Finally, individual form nudges reinforce the model’s market gaps. Camiel Neghli’s recent productivity and rating give Millwall a clear attacking outlet who has contributed three goal involvements in five matches[^fact-7]. Oliver McBurnie’s four goals in five still leave Hull exposed in other areas, particularly with Amir Hadziahmetovic unavailable[^fact-6][^fact-8]. Those player-level details accentuate why the model assigns the away result the highest probability[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to an away win, putting Millwall as the large favourites with a 61% probability and a high-confidence 32 percentage-point margin to the next outcome[^fact-2]. That view is supported by the recent points-per-game split, superior defensive numbers for Millwall, and a 45-point Elo edge in the visitors’ favour after home adjustment[^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-3]. Markets were compared across three offerings for this piece[^fact-10], and the clearest model-market divergence is on the away victory, which the model regards as the primary predictive outcome[^fact-2][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 8 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — Championship [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 10% / Draw 29% / Away 61% (source: model; confidence high, 32 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HUL vs MLW — Elo differential -45 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HUL recent form** — WLDDL last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **MLW recent form** — WDWWD last 10: 5-3-2 (W-D-L), 1.80 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **HUL in-form player** — Oliver McBurnie — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.45. [^fact-7]: **MLW in-form player** — Camiel Neghli — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.41. [^fact-8]: **HUL key absence** — Amir Hadziahmetovic out (injury), 390 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **MLW key absence** — Danny McNamara  out (injury), 150 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .