# Millwall vs Hull City > Championship · Kickoff Mon 11 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/3283) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Millwall 0–2 Hull City ## Model verdict - **Millwall win:** 82% - **Draw:** 12% - **Hull City win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home advantage and defensive control point to Millwall victory ## The stage This midweek Championship fixture kicks off on Mon 11 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC and carries the immediate weight of league business for both sides. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum Millwall arrive on the back of a DWDWW sequence over their last 10 matches, a 4-4-2 record producing 1.60 points per game and an attacking output of 1.30 goals while conceding 0.80 per match — the numbers underline a side that has tightened up defensively and found enough attacking rhythm to grind results. [^fact-4] Hull’s last 10 read DWLDD, a 2-5-3 split worth 1.10 points per game, scoring 1.10 and leaking 1.30 on average; the underlying profile is softer at the back and less consistent in front of goal compared with Millwall. [^fact-5] The model applies a clear home tilt: a significant 241-point Elo differential in Millwall’s favour once home advantage is included, a margin that normally translates into a large expected superiority on matchday. [^fact-3] That edge is echoed by the model verdict, which heavily favours the home side (82% win probability) over draw (12%) and away victory (6%). [^fact-2] ## Personnel Millwall’s current form rallies around the form of Camiel Neghli, who has two goals and one assist in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.45 — a forward carrying real recent influence. [^fact-9] Hull’s most productive outlet in recent games has been Oliver McBurnie, who has three goals in his last five outings and an average rating of 7.22; his scoring is one of the main threats Hull brings. [^fact-10] Absence questions matter: Millwall will be without Danny McNamara through injury, a player who had been averaging 60 minutes in the recent run before this layoff. [^fact-11] Hull are missing Amir Hadziahmetovic, who had logged 330 minutes in the most recent stretch before his absence. [^fact-12] Those availability details shift balance subtly. Millwall lose a short-minute contributor but retain the forward form that has driven results; Hull lose a significant minutes contributor in midfield or defence (as implied by the minutes total), which compounds their recent defensive fragility. [^fact-11] [^fact-12] ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model’s probabilities. [^fact-13] - Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 60% probability to under 2.5, while the market price shown at the Betfair Exchange implies a far lower probability (10.19), producing the largest single edge identified (50.1 percentage points) and flagged with high confidence. [^fact-6] - Over 2.5 goals: the model places a 40% chance on over 2.5, but the market price at Paddy Power (67.00) implies a much higher expectation for goals; this comparison yields an edge of 38.6 percentage points in the model’s terms, also cited with high confidence. [^fact-7] - Home match winner: the model’s match-level projection puts Millwall as a 75% chance to win in this particular market comparison, while the 1xbet market quoted at 1.79 implies a smaller probability — the computed edge here is 19.6 percentage points and the model marks this as high confidence. [^fact-8] Those three lines span both scoreline expectation and outright result; the model converges strongly on a low-scoring Millwall win as the most coherent narrative when probabilities and market prices are juxtaposed. [^fact-6] [^fact-8] ## Verdict The statistical picture is unambiguous: Millwall carry a substantive Elo advantage and superior recent defensive numbers, the model assigns an 82% win chance and highlights a clear value tilt toward a Millwall victory and a lower-goals profile. [^fact-3] [^fact-2] [^fact-4] [^fact-6] [^fact-8] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 11 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — Championship [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 82% / Draw 12% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 70 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — MLW vs HUL — Elo differential +241 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **MLW recent form** — DWDWW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HUL recent form** — DWLDD last 10: 2-5-3 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 60% vs market price 10.19 at Betfair Exchange, edge 50.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 40% vs market price 67.00 at Paddy Power, edge 38.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Home in Match Winner — model 75% vs market price 1.79 at 1xbet, edge 19.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **MLW in-form player** — Camiel Neghli — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.45. [^fact-10]: **HUL in-form player** — Oliver McBurnie — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.22. [^fact-11]: **MLW key absence** — Danny McNamara  out (injury), 60 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **HUL key absence** — Amir Hadziahmetovic out (injury), 330 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .